Sep 29: USD JPY - Long Term Reversal?

Calling for a bottom, especially for a long term bottom, for this beast is a risky business.

But looking at the wave structure of the chart from Delta's perspective, it does have the possibility for this. I'll be watching to see if price can break 92.522 in the coming days. If it breaks this level, it signals to me that long term bottom has likely arrived at 89.5. The break of 92.522 means a higher high ITD which signals that MTD low (MTD 9) has arrived at 89.5, and since there has been 3 MTD lows (MTD 5, MTD 7, MTD 9) in a row, it also signals LTD 3 low has arrived per Delta's rule.

Without a break of 92.522, no confirmation of a long term bottom.

Sept 25: GBP USD - Alternate Count

A fellow trader Mervyn has asked a very good question about my last GBP USD Delta count. He asks what makes me think that ITD 11 has arrived at 1.613. Why couldn't it arrive a little late, and that we are actually moving up to ITD 1 due around Oct 8. I think ITD 11 has arrived at 1.613, but that's just personal preference.

Mervyn is correct and his scenario is absolutely possible though. If we do move up, I expect the move is to test the broken trend line around 1.62. Although the ITD direction has not yet been confirmed, this doesn't change the MTD and LTD count. MTD and LTD are travelling down, regardless whether we are moving up in ITD or not.

My chart shows ITD 11 low on average is due on Sep 22. Usually the standard deviation for ITD is +/- 4 trading days. It's therefore possible that ITD 11 low is due either last Friday or early next week, especially with the rule that if the higher time frame (MTD) is travelling down, then the lower time frame's (ITD) low tends to arrive on time or late.

There are two things that I will pay attention to:

1. If we still make new lows by Oct 1, then that's a little too late for the ITD 11 arrival and chances are ITD 11 position is where I previously posted (at 1.613).

2. If we break lower than 1.58 in the next few days, we could drop really fast and chances are ITD 11 low position is also where I posted at 1.613.

If one of the two above happens next week, IMO ITD is likely travelling down to around Oct 8. Otherwise, the alternate scenario chart could happen.

Lastly, even if ITD 11 arrives late per Mervyn's idea, since we are in inversion time period, it's possible that there's ITD (11) inversion which makes the ITD 1 a low due around Oct 8. So if you decide to go long, do be careful.

Sept 24: GBP USD - LTD 17 has arrived at 1.7

1.611 is broken. Wedge is also broken convincingly.

We have inversion and ITD 1 becomes a low (previously a high) due around Oct 8. I put LTD 17 high as arrived at 1.7. SLTD 3 high will also arrive here as well if 1.58 is broken.

Sept 23: USD YEN Update

Inability to continue bullish move and take out 93.3 means that MTD 9 low and LTD 3 low position is not confirmed at 90.1.

Looking at the chart now, there is a good chance that we see one more leg lower before MTD 9 low and LTD 3 low arrived. The due date for this low is on the first - second week of October.

Sep 21: USD JPY - Possible significant bottom at 90.1

USD JPY could have reached a significant bottom at 90.1, especially if 93.3 is taken out in coming days.

I put ITD 3 high at 93.3, which if broken, signals that MTD 9 low has arrived at 90.1. With already 3 MTD lows in a row (MTD 5 low, MTD 7 low, MTD 9 low), LTD 3 low should have arrived at MTD 9 low as well, making this 90.1 level a pretty significant long term bottom.

Bearish trend line has been broken, Stochastic and MACD all supportive for further upmove.

GBP USD: ITD 11 low should arrive soon

As price seems to go down towards Tuesday Sept 22, I change my ITD count rotation slightly, but the conclusion stays the same.

Medium Term trend is likely still UP, and major level not to be broken is 1.611. Preferred strategy is to buy dips with stops below 1.611. Alternatively, if 1.611 is broken, then I would conclude that LTD 17 has arrived at 1.7 and ITD 10 at 1.674 is also MTD 5 high.

In my count, ITD 11 low is due on average around Tuesday Sep 22. It could be due earlier (today or Monday) as MTD direction is currently UP. Price currently has bounced from a trend line support, and there's also 61.8% fib support. Further weakness should be supported by SMA 100 days at 1.625

ITD 1 high could be MTD 5 high as well, and it's due around October 8. If there's no inversion, then once ITD 11 low is IN, we should move up towards Oct 8.

GBP USD: Alternate Count

One more thing before I go.

I favor a bullish count where medium term low is IN at 1.611. However, if cable reverses around Tuesday Sep 8 and take out 1.611, this is the alternate count that I will be considering.

Travelling next week

I'll be travelling next week and may not have time to update blog.
Dollar Index is on the way to break below the wedge as of this writing, as I favored in my previous post.

If we could close below it firmly, coming to next week, we could expect continued and accelerated selling of USD.

Good luck everyone.

ITD 10 low and MTD 4 low likely IN at 1.6112

Price has broken 1.638, which I labelled as ITD 9 high. Unless my ITD count position is incorrect, I must make a conclusion that ITD 10 low and MTD 4 low have arrived at 1.6112.

This means that ITD and MTD direction are currently UP. MTD 5 high is due at the latest around third week of October. LTD 17 high position is not yet confirmed at 1.7.

Perhaps gold breaking above the wedge yesterday changed the rule of the game. Near term, we could see pressure on USD., and I favor a break of USD Index to the downside at the moment.