USD JPY Delta Position

Note:
Please ignore the system date of this post since I will update this page regularly
I will attempt to update this page every Saturday
Following charts are updated as of Jan 30, 2010

ITD (MC1)

We have likely reached ITD 1 low at 87.125 on Jan 26, and MTD 8 low likely arrived with it as well. We can still have inversion, but I am leaning towards no inversion and a rally from here.

MTD (MC2)

MTD 8 low has likely arrived at 87.125 on Jan 26 together with ITD 1 low. Although Delta rule allows MTD 8 low to be due a lot later, I am putting it here because of several considerations.

1) If I assume 87.125 is MTD 8 low, then the length of time from MTD 7 to MTD 8 in the current cycle is 19 days. In the past two cycles, the length of time from MTD 7 to MTD 8 low is 22 days and 15 days.

2) The EW structure and Ichimoku seems to support the idea of a bounce from around this price zone

3) Daily stochastic is oversold. Monthly stochastic is oversold and trying to correct up. Some bullish divergence in monthly chart is also noted.

If MTD 8 low has really arrived at 87.125, then the past two cycles give approximate guidance on what to expect for MTD 9 high.

1) In the past two cycles, the length of time from MTD 8 - MTD 9 is 32 days and 43 days, respectively. We could expect similar thing in the current cycle.

2) In the past two cycles, MTD 8 to MTD 9 price move is 1.236 and 1.618 x MTD 7 to MTD 8 price move., respectively. If I project the same 1.236 and 1.618 x MTD 7 to MTD 8 price move in the current cycle, then MTD 9 price zone is between 100 and 103. However, I will focus more on time rather than price target. So when we get closer to March (30-40 days move is my time target), then I'll be reassessing this price target again.