Above chart is GBP USD SLTD chart with the last 3 cycles.
SLTD 4 has always been due near green line. The question is whether in the current cycle, SLTD 4 has been due at the question mark place (1.57 on Oct 13, 2009).
If current cycle repeats the previous two cycles (sometimes it does not), then GBP USD is in a very long UP cycle (until SLTD 7).
The length of time from SLTD 1 in Jan 2002 to SLTD 4 in Feb 2002 is 56 weeks.
The length of time from SLTD 1 in Dec 2004 to SLTD 4 in Dec 2005 is 50 weeks.
In the current cycle, if I assume 1.57 on Oct 13, 2009 is the current cycle's SLTD 4, then the length of time from SLTD 1 in Jul 2008 to SLTD 4 in Oct 2009 is 65 weeks. This is longer than the previous two cycles, and thus there's a chance that SLTD 4 was already IN.
Assuming SLTD 4 is still not IN, the length of time from SLTD 1 in Jul 2008 to the current week is already 78 weeks. If SLTD 4 is still not IN, then this cycle's pattern and structure would likely not repeat the past two cycles and we need to do some other analysis.
Now take a look at the length of time from SLTD 4 to SLTD 5 in the past two cycles. It was 52 weeks and 60 weeks. That's 1 year up cycle. 1 year from SLTD 4 in Oct 2009 is Oct 2010.
5 comments:
hey there FXNewb from the forum..
Ive never looked at SLTD before...it really does paint a bullish picture longer term...looking further ahead.."6" could come in at around 1.700 area before push up to the .764 retrace of the whole 2.11/1.350 move @1.9348 to complete "8"..i have to agree that bulls are about to take over the ship!!
Hyperthetically...looking even further ahead lol..the .618 retrace from 1.35 to 1.9348 comes out at just above october 09 lows...
I really like the idea of using SLTD..i havent seen you use it before ( i might have missed it though)...but well worthy of refering to it to base shorter term trades off..
thks!
Hi FXNewb,
Yes, it's very helpful in looking at the "big picture". This is the only system that lest you see so far away and kinda gives you an overall MAP.
However, sometimes the current cycle chooses to "deviate" from previously established cycles for whatever reason (usually the reason is some huge fundamental shift), and therefore it's not 100% guaranteed.
It's nonetheless in favor of BULLS if we were to move forward in time NORMALLY without big fundamental disruption.
Hey...
Yes agree re funamentals...for example the last turn point 8 to turn point 1 coincided with the start of the HUGE bear run in 2008..
Previously 2 number "1" turning points did so against the yellow line..the 2008 start of bear run was way off..so yes i totally see your point..
I dont believe that we would see such a HUGE shift as per 2008 for quite sometime...anything could happen...but conforming to the NORM is more likely how this will play out..and therfore placing trades with the "norm" in mind gives us more of an edge..and puts the bull well in control!!
After we hit 6550/6750 area this time around and then head back down to 5900/6000 area maybe.. for the next MTD turning point..ill be looking for more heavier long positions at that point.
Hi yes take it step by step, and not rushing and fast forward 1 year, otherwise we just get older too quick, LOL.
Haha...Fx sure feels like that....always looking a week..a month...a YEAR!! in front...have you got any decade turning points for me to go nuts with lol ;)...
catch you later!!
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