Jan 10 - More food for thought on USD JPY

Above is USD JPY ITD chart. If 93.76 is really the MTD 7 high, then the above chart is my preferred ITD count. However, only a break below ITD 11 (below 91.24) will confirm that MTD 7 high has arrived. Otherwise, technically speaking, we could still head up to ITD 1 due around red line (around end of January). If we keep rallying, then ITD 1 high around end of Jan must be MTD 7 high because Delta's rule has a maximum of 3 ITDs within MTD (or 4 ITDs if one of the ITD is an inversion).

Interestingly though, in my Jan 8 post, I mentioned that MTD 8 low arrival time zone is likely around 15-20 days from MTD 7 high. I also mentioned in the previous post that MTD 8 low's arrival time zone is around Jan 25 - 29, assuming that MTD 7 high is at 93.76. If ITD 11 inverts at 93.76, then this MTD 8's arrival time zone matches well with the ITD 1's arrival time zone.

For bullish scenario until around end of January, I have come up with this EW chart:

If this EW count is right, then we could have one more rally to wave 5. However, the requirement for this EW count to be valid is it doesn't break below 91.24. If it breaks below it, then the Delta's logic says that MTD 7 high arrival is confirmed, and therefore this EW count is likely wrong.

Overall, I am leaning towards ITD (11) inversion instead of rallying to ITD 1 high around end of January. But a break below 91.24 is required to confirm it.