Monday, January 4, 2010

Jan 4: USD JPY - MTD 7 may have arrived @93.2


Happy New Year everyone,

Wishing you all another good and profitable year in trading. Now back to Delta stuff =)

Referring to my Dec 31 USD JPY Delta post, we have touched the second TL that I indicated as possible resistance at 93.2, and we get a sound rejection.

The signal day (the day that makes a new high near Delta turning point) is today with a low of 92.18 and a high of 93.2. To get better confirmation of MTD 7 arrival, a daily candle close below the low of signal day (below 92.18) in the next few days is safer. However, with the sound rejection today, it's quite probable that MTD 7 high has arrived.

As I indicated in my Dec 28 post, once MTD 7 high arrives, we will be in a medium term downcycle for about 15-22 calendar days, and from that point MTD 8 low will be IN, and we will have a MASSIVE UPMOVE with LITTLE RETRACEMENT to MTD 9 high for about 30-40 calendar days.

2 comments:

amiko said...

Hi CMellon,

is there a chance 93.2 isn't MTD7 and we're getting it higher today or until the end of the week ?

Thanks,

Ami

Cmellon said...

Hi Ami,

There's always a chance for anything in FX. We are dealing only with probability and we try to do the best with what we have.

Having said that, I think it's likely that MTD 7 high has arrived. But if 93.2 is broken, then there could be one more high before the reversal to MTD 8 low. I am still sticking with the current chart unless proved wrong.

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