Dec 31 - Waiting for MTD 7 high arrival confirmation

There's no change with USD JPY forecast from my last post. We are near a turnaround period and waiting for confirmation of MTD 7 high arrival. I draw two trend lines as possible resistance. Yesterday we touched the first TL resistance at 92.75. The second TL resistance is at around 93.2 (this is also upper bollinger band) if it rallies more. In any case, turnaround is near and I personally won't try to chase market by going long at this level. Bearish divergence is also noted at 4 hour and daily chart.

In the zoomed chart, I am looking for a confirmation of a daily candle close below the low of the signal day to confirm MTD 7 high arrival. The low of the current signal day is at 91.89. This confirmation signal is my way to identify a Delta point arrival as explained in my blog Delta Trading: May 19 - How to Trade Delta Point

Dec 31: GBP USD - ITD 9 low / MTD 8 low IN @5830

Quick update with GBP USD from yesterday's post. With bullish engulfing candle yesterday, there's a good possibility that ITD 9 low and MTD 8 low have arrived yesterday at 5830. Buying dips is the preferred strategy from now on.

Dec 30: GBP USD - ITD 9 low and MTD 8 low should be IN soon

ITD 9 low and MTD 8 low will be both IN very soon. We are in the turnaround time period now. We could be a few days late which is perfectly fine by Delta rule, especially if LTD (18) was due at MTD 7 high. This is currently my preferred and main LTD and SLTD count, which shows that both LTD and SLTD are currently travelling down, and thus ITD and MTD are normal to be late for a few days when the higher time frame is travelling down. My chart shows that ITD 9 low average turnaround date is on Monday Dec 28. ITD normally has +/- 1 to 4 trading days standard deviation.

Once MTD 8 low is IN, a look at the two previous MTD cycles show that MTD 8 - MTD 9 could be as long as 50 calendar days and as short as 17 calendar days.

Dec 28: USD JPY - MTD 7 high would be IN anytime

Hello traders. Hope everyone has a nice and relaxing break. Our vacation trip has been very enjoyable and I couldn't wait to get into the market again.

The Medium Term (MTD) outlook for USD JPY looks pretty clear to me, and there's a good opportunity to do some medium term trading and get good profit for the next two months.

To follow up from my previous USD JPY Delta forecast, ITD 8 high and MTD 7 high arrival time are very near and they could be due at anytime now. If you have not been long until now, it's not the best time to go long now as the risk reward is not good.

A look at the two previous MTD cycles give us the forecast for the next two months. We will very soon move to MTD 8 low which should be due around 15 - 22 calendar days from MTD 7 high. In other words, USD JPY is going to weaken until around second - third week of January. From that point on, MTD 8 low will be IN, and we will have a MASSIVE UPMOVE to MTD 9 high. Be sure not to miss this MTD 8 - MTD 9 move.

Hi everyone,

I will be travelling next week, so I won't be able to post new update or respond to questions.
Will be back on the 28th.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all.

Dec 17: USD JPY - Moving along nicely

No change in USD JPY projection. Both ITD and MTD are travelling up nicely per my last post until around end of December.

Dec 17: GBP USD - ITD 8 high looks to be IN

ITD 8 high looks to be IN at 1.641, and we are moving to ITD 9 low (also MTD 8 low) due around end of December.

Dec 10 - GBP USD Delta Update

I have rearranged the ITD count a little bit, but as I previously said, MTD is travelling down until around end of December.

ITD 7 low was due at 1.616, and we are travelling to ITD 8 high for about 3-5 days from ITD 7 low. Target price is around 1.66 (see channel line), then we'll go down one more leg to ITD 9 low due around end of December where MTD 8 low will be due too. ITD 9 low likely will be at the bottom of channel line too.

Dec 7: USD JPY - ITD 7 low and MTD 6 low IN

As I have warned repeated times in my Nov 25, Nov 26, Nov 27 post, USD JPY is very near to ITD 7 low and MTD 6 low, and MTD is travelling UP for the most part in December. ITD 7 and MTD 6 low were due at 85.

A closer look at both ITD chart and MTD chart show that the rally still has legs and most importantly TIME to complete. IMO, USD JPY is good to buy on dips for the month of December.

Dec 7: GBP USD - ITD 7 high likely IN

ITD 7 high was likely IN at 1.672 on Dec 2. As I said in my Nov 28 post "since MTD is travelling down, ITD 7 high will likely arrive earlier. It could be as early as 4 trading days."

ITD 8 low is due on average Dec 21. ONS is expected to report 3rd revision of 3rd Quarter GDP on Dec 22. If they revise up another few percentage, then we may see some rally, good timing for ITD 8 low to be due.

Although ITD position might be slightly unclear, MTD outlook still seems to be the clearest with MTD travelling down until around end of Dec. I still think we could break 1.627 by the end of this month.

Update on my GBP USD Delta chart.

ITD is travelling up to ITD 7 due on average on Dec 8. It may reach as high as the trend line resistance (1.68) per the ITD chart attached.

As I said before, MTD outlook seems to be the clearest IMO and it's travelling down until around end of December. Since MTD is down, ITD 7 may be due earlier than Dec 8. I will try to short cable with stop loss above MTD 7 high at 1.688.

Once this ITD upmove is completed, we shall go down lower than 1.6270