July 30 - GBP USD: ITD 6 low IN?

It's a little bit premature to post these charts, but if we can get a daily candle close above 1.647 today, there's a good chance that ITD 6 low has already IN at 1.634 yesterday. Attached is Delta Chart and Elliot Wave chart (credit EW count to Jamie Saettle from DailyFX).

July 29 - USD YEN: Travelling to ITD 1 High due around Aug 6

This is update to the post at July 23.

Considering the time and current price level, USD YEN most likely has inversion, and ITD 1 high will be due around Aug 6.

July 24 - GBP USD : ITD 5 High is In

ITD 5 high is likely IN at 1.6585 as today's candle has closed (London closing time) below the low of signal day (below 1.643).

MTD rotation is still unclear since it's still not totally out of inversion time period. ITD rotation slowly gets more clear and out of inversion time period.

Intermediate Term direction is DOWN to ITD 6 low due on average July 30.

July 24 - GBP YEN : Medium Term Direction

There's a bullish count for GBP YEN which will get more favorable if time continues to pass by and Geppy doesn't start to reverse seriously. If USD YEN bullish count I posted yesterday happens to be the correct one, then GBP YEN bullish count could likely also be happening.

Under this bullish count, MTD 7 low, and most likely also LTD 10 low have been due at 146.75, so medium term direction and long term direction are travelling up.

In ITD time frame, under this scenario, ITD 9 low will end above 146.75.

For the bearish case I posted in July 13 to be happening, Geppy needs to start reversing hard asap.

July 23 - USD YEN Situation

Previous high 94.8 has been topped out. At this point, there are two possible ways.

Either ITD 11 high is due late and in this case after it's in, we are moving lower to ITD 1 due around Aug 6.

Or ITD 11 could invert in bullish scenario as ITD is currently in inversion time zone, and this will make ITD 1 to be a high instead of a low due around the same time at Aug 6. In this bullish scenario, MTD 7 low is most likely IN at 91.7. Bullish count will be negated if USD YEN drops lower than ITD (11) or 93.08

Posted is chart for the bullish scenario.

July 22 - EUR JPY : ITD 12 / MTD 8 High position

Looking at the EUR YEN ITD chart, comparison of ITD 12 positions to previous two cycles show that the current cycle's ITD 12 high position could already be IN at 134.75. Confirmation of a daily candle close below 132.74 is required to safely conclude it.

Looking at the EUR YEN MTD chart, comparison of MTD 8 high positions to previous two cycles also show that the current cyce's MTD 8 high position could already be IN at 134.75. The same confirmation of a candle close below 132.74 is required for more safety.

In other words, Intermediate and Medium Term top have either already been IN or very near to arrival.

July 21 - USD JPY : ITD 11 High is In

This is an update to my previous post in July 8 and July 15.

I am currently putting ITD 11 high as already IN due to the daily close below the low of signal day at 94.12.

Intermediate Term direction is DOWN, Medium Term direction is DOWN. Target is below 91.7, and target time is around August 6.

July 21 - GBP USD : ITD rotation seems to get clear

ITD rotation seems to be getting clearer now and I am quite comfortable with the ITD rotation per the attached chart. However, ITD 5 high has not been confirmed yet without a daily close below 1.6317, so we may still get rally higher. MTD and LTD rotation are still not clear since MTD is still in inversion time zone.

Regardless of the MTD and LTD rotation, if ITD 5 high is already IN at 1.65556, then Intermedate Term direction is DOWN to ITD 6 low due around July 31. The price level of ITD 6 low (whether above or below 1.5982) around July 31 would later further clarifies the MTD and hopefully LTD rotation.

July 17 - GBP JPY : How to Spot the Arrival of ITD 8 High

As we are nearing the ITD 8 high time zone reversal (take a look at July 13 post to see why we are nearing ITD 8 high time zone reversal), per the rule I posted on how to trade a Delta point (http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/2009/05/how-to-trade-delta-point.html), a daily candle close below the low of the the signal day at 152.375 would increase the probability that ITD 8 high is already IN at 155.16.

July 15 - USD YEN : Travelling UP to ITD 11 High

This is an update to my USD YEN chart previously posted on July 8.

USD YEN has potential to go up some more for another 100+ pips before reversing.

Once top (ITD 11) is reached, the low of 91.7 should be taken out on the way to ITD 1 low (and also MTD 7 low).

July 13 - GBP JPY : Travelling UP to ITD 8 high

Comparison of ITD 8 highs to previous cycles indicate that it's due around this vicinity in terms of time. In the meantime, MTD and LTD are still travelling down at least until mid August, and therefore we shall get another low soon once ITD 8 high is IN.

GBP JPY Delta ITD chart shows us that ITD 9 low (and MTD 7 low) should be due on average on the yellow vertical line in the month of August. Target price is probably around 50% fib to 61.8% fib from the low 118 to the high 162.6.

However, looking at bigger picture GBP JPY Delta MTD chart, there's a good possibility that SLTD 4 low (Super Long Term Delta) has already arrived at 118. This bigger picture count is subject to change as I will reassess again next August. If it's as I projected, then SLTD in fact is travelling up and therefore we will not get any price lower than 118. When SLTD is travelling up, we will get a series of higher high and higher low LTD.

With this projection, there's a chance that MTD 7 low in mid August would also be LTD 10 low as I indicated in the MTD chart. If that is so,we will then move higher to LTD 11 (and this would also be SLTD 5 high) due on around November.

July 8 - USD YEN Delta

Looking at USD YEN ITD chart, in the past two cycles, ITD 11 was due only a couple of trading days after ITD 10, then there's a relatively long trading days from ITD 11 to ITD 1.

This may mean that MTD 7 low will be due at ITD 1 low. And time frame wise, ITD 1 low will be due around end of July. In other words, assuming if the low today (91.8) is ITD 10 low, further slide down below ITD 10 is likely after a quick and short lived 2-3 days rally from ITD 10 low to ITD 11 high.

July 8 - EUR JPY Delta MTD

MTD 7 low was due around the red vertical line in the past two cycles. We are now in that position now, so I will be looking for medium term bottom soon.

Higher picture, MTD 6 high (139.2) has to be LTD 2 high as well because there has been three series of higher high from the low of 112 to the high of 139.2. Delta only allows a maximum of 3 series of higher high.

This means that LTD is travelling down. So even though MTD 7 low is soon to be due and MTD will then travel up, since LTD is travelling down, we shall see a lower low and a lower high. This means MTD 8 high later will be lower than MTD 6 high (lower than 139.2).

You can see in the past two cycles, MTD 8 high arrival is very short. It's only a couple of trading days from the MTD 7 low.

July 8 - GBP JPY Delta

We are somewhere near ITD 7 low, probably could be due in the next few days. Notice in the past two cycles ITD 7 low was due slightly after the blue vertical line. Currently we are already 1 trading day after the blue vertical line. I am looking for an intermediate trend up to ITD 8 high to add short. That's probably on the third / fourth week of July. I currently have short at 159.8 and will keep it until mid August, currently with stop loss at 160.27. I will move the Stop Loss to 1 pip above ITD 8 high later after I confirm the position of ITD 8.

July 7 - LTD 15 likely arriving late

Price action with GBP USD has recently left me scratching my head, especially with the pair currently in inversion time period (ITP) for both ITD and MTD time frame.
But it looks now the situation is becoming a little more clear and here's my latest count that I am using.

In the ITD chart, we see that LTD 15 high arrived late at 1.674.ITD, MTD, and LTD are therefore now all travelling down. ITD 4 low will be due around July 13. A break of MTD 1 at 1.58 is required to confirm the position of LTD 15 high.

Although all time frames are now travelling down, LTD 16 low is going to arrive not too long from now. I circle the LTD 16 low time zone. I think it's likely that the downtrend will last until mid August as per my circle.

Looking at bigger picture LTD chart, once we finish this LTD 16 downmove, we'll rally higher one more time from probably around mid August to November of this year.