Jan 10 - GBP NZD Trade Idea

Perhaps many of you don't trade this pair, but I have been keeping my eye on GBP NZD lately since it seems to be nearing a Super Long Term Delta low time zone.

First off, we start with SLTD chart. The chart above is SLTD (MC4) chart with the last 3 full cycles. A full cycle of SLTD is a 4 year cycle in length or 1461 days. It never inverts and it has 8 turning points. Because it never inverts, once we know SLTD 1 is a high, it will always be a high. It's pretty simple.

We could see in the chart that SLTD 8 has always been due around green line. The question is whether SLTD 8 low has been due at 2.13 or not. Regardless whether it's been due or not, we could nonetheless see that we are near the time zone of SLTD 8 low. Bear in mind that SLTD is a very high time frame and therefore could have a big standard deviation, sometimes as long as several months.

Let's move on to second chart.

In the second chart above, I am doing a time count and fibonacci time count for the last three SLTD cycles. We could observe the following from the chart above:

1998 - 2002 Cycle
From SLTD 1 in Sep 25, 1998 to another SLTD 1 in Aug 9, 2002 (this is one full SLTD cycle), the length of time is 201 weeks or 1407 days. Remember as I said above that 1 full SLTD cycle is 4 year in length or 1461 days, so 1407 days is pretty close to the average.

From SLTD 1 in Sep 25, 1998 to SLTD 8 in June 14, 2002, the length of time is 192 weeks or 1344 days.

2002 - 2006 Cycle
From SLTD 1 in Aug 9, 2002 to another SLTD 1 in Aug 4, 2006, the length of time is 208 weeks or 1456 days (this is almost exactly 1461 days average).

From SLTD 1 in Aug 9, 2002 to SLTD 8 in Dec 9, 2005, the length of time is 174 weeks or 1218 days.

We could also see the length of time from SLTD 7 in April 22, 2005 - SLTD 8 in Dec 9, 2005 is 35 weeks and the length of time from SLTD 8 in Dec 9, 2005 - SLTD 1 in Aug 4, 2006 is 34 weeks.

2006 - 2010 Cycle (Current Cycle)
By doing fibonacci time count in Dynamic Trader, I believe I might have found an important time link for the next SLTD 1 high. The length of time from SLTD 1 high in Sep 25, 1998 to SLTD 8 low in Dec 9, 2005 is 377 weeks (377 is a fibonacci number).

This tells us that both of these turning points are perhaps important turning points. Extending the fibonacci time count, 677 weeks from SLTD 1 high in Sep 25, 1998 is June 4, 2010 (677 is also a fibonacci number). If I do a fibonacci time count from SLTD 8 low in Dec 9, 2005, 233 weeks from Dec 9, 2005 is May 28, 2010 (233 is a fibo number). By doing this exercise, we find there's a fibonacci time cluster around end of May / early June.

What's interesting about this May 28, 2010 and June 4, 2010 date is this: If you measure the length of time from SLTD 1 in Aug 4, 2006 to the week of May 28 / June 4, 2010, you will get 199 weeks or 1393 days. This is close enough to the average 1460 days (208 weeks) for a full SLTD cycle. In other words, SLTD 1 high might arrive around end of May / early June, 2010.

If we assume that 2.13 at Oct 9, 2009 is SLTD 8 low, then the length of time from SLTD 1 in Aug 4, 2006 to SLTD 8 low in Oct 9, 2009 is 167 weeks or 1169 days. Also assuming that end of May / early June 2010 is the SLTD 1 high arrival, then we have 20 weeks to go towards SLTD 1 high.

The fibonacci time count in SLTD chart probably still doesn't tell us with high probability that SLTD 8 low has arrived at 2.13. But at least we can see that we are near SLTD 8 low time zone with only 20 weeks left before SLTD 1 high is due.

In the next MTD chart, we could see a compelling reason for bullish case:

If the proposed MTD count is correct, we could see MTD 6 has always been due near yellow line.
MTD 4 (2.13) is maybe an LTD low as well although it's not guaranteed because Delta allows for 4 maximum MTDs in this case since one of the MTD point is an inversion. But if MTD 6 low is above MTD 4, then LTD low is likely IN at 2.13, as well as SLTD 8 low.

I also do a time count between MTD 1 to MTD 6 in all three cycles. The length of time between MTD 1 - MTD 6 in the previous two cycles is 127 and 145 days, and in the current cycle it's 170 days. In other words, the length of time between MTD 1 to MTD 6 in the current cycle is already longer than the previous two cycles, which makes it likely that MTD 6 to be due soon.

Next, we'll use Elliot Wave count to project possible price level reversal.

As you can see above, we have 5 waves up and 3 waves down. Wave C is currently about equal to wave A, and we are nearing the price level reversal zone.

GBP NZD - Potential Long Opportunity

I was looking at GBP NZD and there could be a really good long opportunity for this pair. I have attached two charts: Delta and Elliot Wave.

In the Delta MTD chart, I am not labelling the count, but you can see that medium term Delta point has always been due near the yellow vertical line. We are now just right there at the yellow vertical line, telling us a Medium Term Delta (in the current situation it's Medium Term Delta low) has arrived / is going to arrive very soon.

In the EW chart, we can see a five waves up, and three waves down. It's yet to be seen whether wave C has completed, but combining this with Delta tells us wave C should soon / already complete.