ITD 9 was probably IN yesterday at 1.52. It does not reach my preferred level around 1.53, but we did get a bearish engulfing daily candle, signalling a potential reversal. Only a daily cande close below 4980 would give me more assurance for this conclusion. Alternatively, we could rally one or two more days to 1.53 before reaching ITD 9.
IF ITD 9 was IN yesterday, we are moving down to ITD 10. I have a problem to estimate the due date for ITD 10. The average due date of ITD 10 is on May 13. This average due date is based on the average of multiple past cycles. However, in the last cycle, ITD 10 was due late and if we just use the last cycle as the basis to forecast, then ITD 10 should be due around May 20 instead.
The other problem is that MTD currently is in Inversion Time Period. I put MTD 12 low as IN with ITD 8 low. Without inversion, the medium term trend is UP and we will move up to MTD 1 high with a series of higher ITD high and higher ITD low. With inversion, the medium term trend could stop halfway, and then reverse, making MTD 1 as a low instead.
I have two possible scenarios here:
1. Bullish scenario (MTD does not invert)
In this scenario, MTD direction is UP and does not invert. If ITD 9 was IN yesterday, we are moving down to ITD 10, and most likely it's due on May 13 of next week. After ITD 10, we will move up to ITD 11 and it's going to be higher than ITD 9.
2. Bearish scenario (MTD inverts)
MTD 12 could now invert at ITD 9 and thus making this as a medium term top and MTD 1 later would be a medium term low instead. If this is the case, we are moving to ITD 10 due probably at the later date around May 20. In this scenario, there's a possibility that ITD 8 low (4395) would be taken out at the conclusion of MTD 1.
