A fellow trader Mervyn has asked a very good question about my last GBP USD Delta count. He asks what makes me think that ITD 11 has arrived at 1.613. Why couldn't it arrive a little late, and that we are actually moving up to ITD 1 due around Oct 8. I think ITD 11 has arrived at 1.613, but that's just personal preference.
Mervyn is correct and his scenario is absolutely possible though. If we do move up, I expect the move is to test the broken trend line around 1.62. Although the ITD direction has not yet been confirmed, this doesn't change the MTD and LTD count. MTD and LTD are travelling down, regardless whether we are moving up in ITD or not.
My chart shows ITD 11 low on average is due on Sep 22. Usually the standard deviation for ITD is +/- 4 trading days. It's therefore possible that ITD 11 low is due either last Friday or early next week, especially with the rule that if the higher time frame (MTD) is travelling down, then the lower time frame's (ITD) low tends to arrive on time or late.
There are two things that I will pay attention to:
1. If we still make new lows by Oct 1, then that's a little too late for the ITD 11 arrival and chances are ITD 11 position is where I previously posted (at 1.613).
2. If we break lower than 1.58 in the next few days, we could drop really fast and chances are ITD 11 low position is also where I posted at 1.613.
If one of the two above happens next week, IMO ITD is likely travelling down to around Oct 8. Otherwise, the alternate scenario chart could happen.
Lastly, even if ITD 11 arrives late per Mervyn's idea, since we are in inversion time period, it's possible that there's ITD (11) inversion which makes the ITD 1 a low due around Oct 8. So if you decide to go long, do be careful.
3 comments:
Thanks for the clarification.
The inversion zone is always a bit ambigious.
Hi, C
I noticed that you use Dynamic Trader software, which by the timeframe labelling, seems quite different from the one and solutions offered by the Delta Office. One other report using Delta solution is that Cable is now after ITD7 high (1.6466), and still waiting for MTD2 (high/low uncertain) and LTD3 high. And your ITD10 is their ITD5.
Do you know why there is different between these two Delta solutions?
Thanks
Hello anonymous, thanks for the question.
I do my own analysis in real time which has been working for me in the past, so my solution will not be the same with the official Delta's solution. This doesn't mean theirs is wrong or anything though.
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