April 20, 2009
ITD 7 low (4580) is taken out today. This means we can rule out Part 1 Chart that I posted last weekend, and we are now moving according to Part 4 Chart. Since 4580 is taken out, this means that we have confirmation ITD 8 / MTD 11 has arrived, and they arrived early compared to the average turn date.
So then as Part 4 chart shows (I attach it again here), we are now moving towards MTD 12 which is due around end of May and it should not break lower than MTD 10 (no lower than 3650). It should not break lower than MTD 10 because my working assumption is that LTD 15 is not IN together with ITD 8 / MTD 11. You can read my PART 3 post for the reason why I think so.
However, another possible scenario is that I mess up the ITD count. I attach here an alternative chart which is more bullish than PART 4 chart. You can compare the ITD count differences between the two. In this alternative count, we are moving down to ITD 8 due around April 27 and it should not break lower than ITD 6 low (no lower than 4110) as the MTD direction is still UP. For this alternative chart, the line in the sand therefore is ITD 6 low at 4110.
But as you can see, whether you prefer Part 4 Chart or this alternative chart, both charts are telling us that the Intermediate Term direction is down at the moment, at least until around the end of this week.
