April 18, 2009 - PART 5
This is the conclusion from part 1 -4. You need to read them in sequential order before this.
Taken into consideration everything I posted, here's my personal conclusion:
1. Intermediate Term trend - Neutral / Could be bullish or bearish.
ITD 8 / MTD 11 could be due last Thursday on April 16, or it is also equally possible to be due around average turn day of April 27 . Part 1 of my post shows this chart.
2. Medium Term trend - Bearish if 4580 is taken out
If ITD 8 / MTD 11 was due last Thursday, then we should go lower to MTD 12 which has to be at least lower than ITD 7 (4580) but no lower than MTD 10 at 3650 because I believe LTD 15 is not yet IN. Part 4 of my post shows this chart.
3. Long Term Trend - Bullish
As I believe LTD 15 is not yet IN even if ITD 8 / MTD 11 has been due on April 16, I am bullish with GBP USD in long term time frame. It's unlikely that 1.5067 is LTD 15 turning point. An important turning point like LTD turning point usually has a crucial level or a very important level. 1.5067 to me looks like a level that is not particularly important, and thus I believe it will be toppled out again.
So my conclusion is that either part 1 chart or part 4 chart will happen, but not part 2 chart.
In case PART 4 chart happens: IF we indeed go down to MTD 12 below 1.4 and many FX analysts start to freak out and saying we will go lower than 1.35, I am here saying that we most likely will not go lower than 1.35 and will go up higher than 1.5067 after MTD 12 is complete.
Have fun trading and till the next ITD update.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
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