June 30 - Further thought on GBP USD

After some thinking period, I come up with two possible Delta count (one bullish, one bearish) and of the opinion that the bullish one is more likely. I will do more thinking over the weekend and post next Monday to see if there's any other possibility.

For now, here are the two possible counts I am considering.

Bullish count

The problem and challenge in the ITD time frame is how to label ITD within the month of June with the inversion period. In the month of June, GBP USD is in a range bound between 1.58 to 1.66, and just today broke the high. If I were to label ITD within this period as per the first chart attached, inevitably the conclusion I must draw is that MTD is travelling up because we have a series of higher high and higher low in ITD time frame. The other conclusion is that since MTD is travelling up and since it breaks the 1.667 (MTD 1 high), LTD must also be travelling up. In other words, LTD 16 low in this case has arrived early and it arrived at 1.58.

In my previous post today, I mentioned that we are close to a medium term high. The bullish count described here still fits into that projection. We could indeed be nearing a medium term high here (MTD 2), and as we travel down to MTD 3 low, by Delta rule it shall not go lower than 1.58 since in this scenario, LTD 16 has arrived at 1.58.

Bearish count

The bearish count ignores the range bound period in the month of June per the second chart attached. The ITD 2 high we would achieve soon would be MTD 1 high and LTD 15 high.

The problem with this is that the ITD timing is messed up, since ITD 2 high will arrive at ITD 3 time zone in this scenario.

June 30 - GBP USD

Hi guys,

GBP USD Delta count for ITD time frame continues to be challenging at the moment due to inversion possibilities for both ITD and MTD.

I would instead attempt to look for direction from bigger time frame. Looking at the MTD chart, we could see that in the previous three cycles GBP USD formed a medium term top slightly before the red vertical line (I circle them)

In the current cycle, we are also near the red vertical line, and that red vertical line is on July 7.

So I think that we could see some kind of medium term top happening soon.

June 25 - USD YEN Delta

Still too many possibilities with GBP USD Delta due to the inversion time period in both ITD and MTD time frame. Inversion could be single and double inversion, and therefore there are quite a number of possibilities, and unless we pass through this period, it's hard for me to be certain of direction. I will leave this pair for a while and look at other pairs which are more clear.

Here I thought I want to post Delta count for USD YEN. It seems like the medium term trend is down but we are in an up cycle in the intermediate term time frame.

Still Waiting for Direction

GBP USD is still in a range between 1.58 - 1.667. The current inversion time period for ITD and MTD make it hard to project with a high degree of confidence. Will wait for several more days. I am currently still leaning on the bearish ITD 11 inversion. If MTD 1 and LTD 15 have arrived at ITD 11 (1.667), then per Delta rule, it's quite natural to expect ITD 2 low to arrive later than the average turning date since the MTD and LTD are travelling down.

June 17 - GBP JPY Delta

Hi guys,

I will update GBP USD next around June 22. As it stands right now, the alternate bearish count with ITD 11 inversion seems to be the correct one. A break below 1.58 would confirm the position of LTD 15 at ITD 11 high.

For now, while waiting for next turn in GBP USD, enjoy this GBP JPY Delta chart.

June 12 - Alternate Bearish Count

Hi everyone,

If there's one thing that I learn from trading FX, it's this: We need to keep an open mind. When I use Delta, I keep looking for an alternate Delta count. Of course the alternate count still has to follow the rules and guidelines of Delta system. Fortunately, compared to other trading system, I think Delta is probably one of the systems that does not offer too many alternate counts. Sometimes in certain cases, there's even no alternative Delta count.

The alternative count is important, especially if we are trading in the Inversion Time Period (ITP). The rather difficult time to trade Delta is during the ITP. Those who follow Delta knows the ITP. Inversion can only happen at either side of ITD 1 / MTD 1/ LTD 1. We are now in that time period for both ITD and MTD. So until the ITP period passes, we still probably can not know for sure whether there's any inversion.

So here, I thought I will post an alternate bearish count. In this count, MTD 1 / LTD 15 has arrived at ITD 11. ITD 11 then inverts at 1.58, and we travelled up to ITD 1 due around June 11. ITD 1 could have arrived on time at 1.662 on June 11. Using this count per the attached chart, we are currently travelling down to ITD 2 due around June 22. This alternate count will be the correct count if ITD (11) at 1.58 is broken in the next several trading days. If ITD (11) is broken, the position of MTD 1 / LTD 15 will then be confirmed at ITD 11, and my primary count I posted at June 10 will not be correct.

However, I am still of the opinion that we will break ITD 11 high, and that we are currently travelling up to ITD 2 due around June 22, with a target price level of 1.68 - 1.7. The primary count is posted in my June 10 post. There's no ITD 11 inversion in this primary count.

June 10 - ITD 1 Probably Has Arrived

Hi everyone,

I mentioned in my prior post that MTD 1 / LTD 15 position still could not be confirmed 100% because Delta rule still allows it to be due later. It seems that one the alternatives could be happening right now.

Looking at the current daily chart, it's very possible that ITD 1 low has arrived on June 8 at 1.5801.

There are several things which led me to think so:

1. It's within the arrival time zone of ITD 1. I said before ITD 1 low arrival is due on average at June 11. June 8 is 3 trading days earlier, which is fine. Also if you read the Delta rule I posted at my June 4 post, when ITD low is due earlier than the average, it's likely that the higher time frame (MTD and LTD) is pointing up. In other words, MTD 1 / LTD 15 is still pointing up. If MTD 1 / LTD 15 has already arrived at ITD 11, then we typically should expect ITD 1 low to be due slightly later than the average turning date, and not earlier.

2. We see a hammer candlestick on the signal day (June 8), followed by a bullish candle confirmation the next day on June 9. June 9 candlestick also closed above the high of the signal day. This is a possible turn signal according to the rule I posted at my May 19 post.

3. Take a look at today's Delta chart, and see the previous two cycles of ITD 1 (I circle and link them together in the chart). They are all due exactly at the vertical red line. This is eerily precise.

What this means is that if ITD 1 low has indeed arrived on June 8, we are now moving up to ITD 2 due on average around June 22. Since there's plenty of time between now and June 22, my guess is that we could make a new high topping out last ITD 11 and this new high would then be the position of MTD 1 / LTD 15. Also if this is happening, then price target is most likely 1.68 - 1.7.

June 4 - Travelling Down to ITD 1

Hi everyone,

Attached is the updated Delta chart. Not too much difference with the previous one, but I want to highlight several things on the chart.

We get four confirmations that ITD 11 has arrived:

1. It's within the time zone of ITD 11 arrival.

2. We get a daily candle close below the low of the signal day. This is according to the rule I posted eariler.

3. The signal day also happens to be a bearish engulfing candle, which signals bearish potential.

4. Dollar Index has reached my target of 61.8% fib support as posted yesterday.

The position of MTD 1 and LTD 15 still could not be confirmed 100% because there are still two possible alternatives allowed by Delta:

1. ITD 11 could invert and then move up higher than the previous ITD 11

2. MTD 1 and LTD 15 could be due at ITD 2 instead.

If market wants to do any of the two alternatives above, this means a new high would be made and according to Delta this new high MUST be LTD 15, and there's no more alternatives.

But having said the alternatives, due to Dollar Index already reaching 61.8% fib and bouncing, I am of the opinion that MTD 1 and LTD 15 was already IN together with ITD 11. In other words, my main count considers ITD 11 at 1.667 to be already a long term top, and this should not be broken for a while.

What's next?

Intermediate Term trend is DOWN. We are travelling down to ITD 1 which is on average should be due around June 11. I assume there's no ITD 11 inversion here. If there's an ITD 11 inversion, we will get the alternate scenario above.

The higher time frames (MTD and LTD) are also travelling down because my preferred count considers MTD 1 and LTD 15 as having arrived at ITD 11. Since the higher time frame is travelling down, ITD 1 will probably be due later than June 11, so I am looking for up to June 17 ITD downmove.

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Delta Rule:

- If the higher time frame is travelling down, the lower time frame low usually will be due on time or late, and the lower time frame high usually will be due early.

- If the higher time frame is travelling up, the lower time frame low usually will be due early, and the lower time frame high usually will be due on time or late.

June 3 - Dollar Index reaches 61.8% fib support

Hi guys,

Quick update. I still have the same Delta count as yesterday, but I called the top 1 day too early.

What gives some comfort is that Dollar Index looks like bouncing at 61.8% fib support, so it does look like that this could be a significant top for the time being.

June 2 - ITD 11 / MTD 1 / LTD 15 have arrived

Hi everyone,

I am currently using this count, assuming that ITD 11 / MTD 1 / LTD 15 has already arrived. This count will be invalid if in the next three days, the top at 1.64991 is broken.

If 1.64991 is broken in the next three days, that would be a little too late for ITD 11 to arrive, and therefore if this happens, I would use the ITD 11 inversion count (look at my prior post for ITD 11 inversion scenario). In the event that ITD 11 inverts, we will have Intermediate Term Up until June 11.

But as of now, attached is the count that I favor. There is no inversion in my favored count, and in our case, Intermediate Term trend is down to ITD 1 due around June 11. Please note from the chart where LTD 16 could arrive. I leave some extra space to the right of the chart so you can see where LTD 16 could arrive. Due to the strong rally and better fundamentals, I won't be surprised if LTD 16 arrives in mid July (although it could arrive up to third week of August).