Hi everyone,
Attached is the updated Delta chart. Not too much difference with the previous one, but I want to highlight several things on the chart.
We get four confirmations that ITD 11 has arrived:
1. It's within the time zone of ITD 11 arrival.
2. We get a daily candle close below the low of the signal day. This is according to the rule I posted eariler.
3. The signal day also happens to be a bearish engulfing candle, which signals bearish potential.
4. Dollar Index has reached my target of 61.8% fib support as posted yesterday.
The position of MTD 1 and LTD 15 still could not be confirmed 100% because there are still two possible alternatives allowed by Delta:
1. ITD 11 could invert and then move up higher than the previous ITD 11
2. MTD 1 and LTD 15 could be due at ITD 2 instead.
If market wants to do any of the two alternatives above, this means a new high would be made and according to Delta this new high MUST be LTD 15, and there's no more alternatives.
But having said the alternatives, due to Dollar Index already reaching 61.8% fib and bouncing, I am of the opinion that MTD 1 and LTD 15 was already IN together with ITD 11. In other words, my main count considers ITD 11 at 1.667 to be already a long term top, and this should not be broken for a while.
What's next?
Intermediate Term trend is DOWN. We are travelling down to ITD 1 which is on average should be due around June 11. I assume there's no ITD 11 inversion here. If there's an ITD 11 inversion, we will get the alternate scenario above.
The higher time frames (MTD and LTD) are also travelling down because my preferred count considers MTD 1 and LTD 15 as having arrived at ITD 11. Since the higher time frame is travelling down, ITD 1 will probably be due later than June 11, so I am looking for up to June 17 ITD downmove.
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Delta Rule:
- If the higher time frame is travelling down, the lower time frame low usually will be due on time or late, and the lower time frame high usually will be due early.
- If the higher time frame is travelling up, the lower time frame low usually will be due early, and the lower time frame high usually will be due on time or late.
10 comments:
Hi Cmellon,
I understand you only use Delta on GBP/USD. Is there a reason ?
I'm trying to use it on Gold and need some assistance. Would you agree to help ?
Thanks in advance,
Amiko
Hi Amiko,
Yes I am using Delta only on GBP/USD as I just want to focus on one currency using this method, and I like to trade this currency. The other reason is the amount of time and work required to set up a proper Delta count on all time frames.
To properly set up a Delta count for all time frames including ITD, MTD, LTD, SLTD requires many hours and hard work. Twenty or more years of historical data is required to set it up properly, and many count iterations are needed. The result also needs to be tested with the current data for several months to see if the initial count is correct.
If you want to try Delta, I'd suggest you just focus on one thing and try to do Delta for the thing you like and trade the most, until you are familiar with the ins and out. The materials I mentioned in my prior post would help you in preparing the Delta count.
Due to the required time and also since I do not follow nor trade gold, it's hard for me to set up a Delta count for gold. Sorry for that.
Hi,
Thank you for the advise. I've just bought "The Delta Phenomenon" book and understand how tough it is to count all time frames.
Do you have an ITD (and possibly MTD) count that you can share ?
I mean - historical 5-10 years with your count will be great to learn how this is parctically done (on GBP/USD ofcourse).
Anyway, Thank you.
Amiko
Hi Amiko,
Let me know your email so I can send it to you.
Hi,
my email is ami.schieber@gmail.com
Thank you very much for sharing.
Amiko
Hi c, thanks again for a great analysis, always a pleasure to read.
Assuming that we are travelling down to ITD 1, what are the delta rules regarding whether MTD 1 and LTD 15 will be lower or higher than ITD 1?
4cfx
PS: I'm commenting as Anonymous because I can't do any of the other options. Is there a trick to this?
Hi 4c,
I think you probably need to register with blogger first so that you can comment using your own moniker.
You have an excellent question regarding the position of MTD 1 and LTD 15. Although I have said that I am of the opinion it was already IN, Delta rule allows it to be due later. I mentioned two alternatives allowed by Delta:
1. We are travelling down to ITD 1 (so ITD 1 should have been a low), but we are now in Inversion Time Zone for both ITD and MTD. This means ITD 11 could invert in the middle and then move up to ITD 1 instead.
In this case, ITD 1 is not a low, but a high instead. ITD 1 in this case would be higher than ITD 11 and the expected arrival is around June 11. We are now on June 9, so unless GBP suddenly starts to rally hard, this inversion is probably unlikely.
2. Delta also allows MTD 1 / LTD 15 to be due on ITD 2 high instead. So in this scenario we are travelling down to ITD 1 low due around June 11, and then travelling up to ITD 2 high due around June 22.
So the key date here is around June 22. We expect a turn around June 22 when ITD 2 high is IN. If price is less than 1.667 when it turns, then chances are good that 1.667 (ITD 11 high) is also MTD 1 / LTD 15.
Cmellon,
Thanks for this blog. You are the first one I have come across who has put this technique to the test and is sharing the results.
I am trying to follow your analysis for the delta times. What charting program are you using? I have been using MetaTrader, but plotting all the lines manually is pretty laborious.
Thanks C, I have a feeling that ITD 11 could be inverted. On my chart, the recent top at 1.6667 was a wave 3 top which means there's another wave 5 up. I guess we will know soon as to whether it's going to break 1.6667 or 1.58. For the time being, I am working with ITD 11 with no inversion.
Joshua,
I use Dynamic Trader for the software.
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