Tuesday, July 21, 2009

July 21 - USD JPY : ITD 11 High is In


This is an update to my previous post in July 8 and July 15.

I am currently putting ITD 11 high as already IN due to the daily close below the low of signal day at 94.12.

Intermediate Term direction is DOWN, Medium Term direction is DOWN. Target is below 91.7, and target time is around August 6.

5 comments:

Joshua said...

Mostly a general question, though this post is what caused me to think of it...What strategy are you using to call the targets? From what I understand from reading the Delta Phenomenon book, Delta only deals with the timeing if highs and lows not the actual range.

Thanks again for all the information you post. I hope to incorporate it into my trading someday when I can afford the charting package.

Cmellon said...

Hi Joshua,

You don't have to buy the charting software. If you understand Delta concept well, you could use any software easily. All you need is to make those vertical color lines in your charting package. The concept behind it is where / what date you put those vertical ilnes, and those are covered by the Delta book.

Secondly, you are right Delta does not project price level. You could use trend line, EW, or any other method to project price.

I said target is below 91.7, and this is based on Delta logic. MTD (one TF higher than ITD) is travelling down. If MTD is travelling down, there is a series of lower low and lower high in ITD. ITD 1 where we are travelling to therefore would be lower than ITD 10 low (91.7).

Cmellon said...

Joshua,

For target time that I mentioned (around Aug 6), this is based on past cycles. Just take a look at the same chart and look for previous ITD 1 in the past two cycles, they were all due on the yellow vertical line.

Current cycle's yellow line is due on Aug 6, and thus my target for ITD 1 low is around Aug 6.

This is standard Delta concept and interpretation to make forecast.

Joshua said...

cmellon,

Thanks for the input. I think I see what you mean now when you say 'below' or 'above' a certain level. You're not saying how much, just that it should pass that point.

As far as charting; doesn't the package plot the lines and delta numbers for you? Or do you actually put all those little blue and red numbers on there by hand? I was thinking that would be a lot of tedious, manual work.

Cmellon said...

Joshua,

DT only plots the lines automatically (and you could do this manually too of course if you know the dates where the lines should be).

You need to put the blue and red numbers manualy. It's indeed a tedious work, but if you are used to it, you could count let's say three cycles rather quickly.

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