Aug 29: GBP USD - ITD 9 High May Have Arrived at 1.638

Cable's recovery rally has been rejected by the broken trend line and makes a shooting star in the daily chart.

ITD 9 high may have already arrived last Friday at 1.638. Even though the average arrival of ITD 9 high is on Aug 31, ITD has a standard devation of +/- 3 to 4 trading days. And there's a Delta rule saying that if the higher time frame is travelling down, the lower time frame's low tends to arrive on time or late, and the lower time frame's high tends to arrive early.

Since MTD is currently travelling down, it's quite possible that ITD 9 high has arrived 1 trading days early on Aug 28 last Friday. If this is the case, we are travelling down to ITD 10 low due on average around September 8.

Target price is probably at least SMA 100 days at 1.598. This is a critical price level since 1.598 is also MTD 2 low, which if broken, signals that LTD 17 high has arrived at 1.7.

As an alternate, further rally in the next 1-2 trading days is not completely ruled out. However, in my opinion, rally will be limited as ITD 9 high will soon arrive, if not already arrived last Friday.

Aug 28: GBP JPY - ITD 8 low is likely IN at 151

ITD 8 low is likely already IN at 151 on Thursday. We could be on the way up to ITD 9 high due around Aug 31.

Projected target price for ITD 9 is probably around 156 (broken trend line).

Aug 27: GBP USD - ITD 8 is likely IN at 1.6159

Target price level and time in the previous post on Aug 18 have been met.

ITD 8 low is probably already IN at 1.6159 on Wednesday.

ITD 9 high will be due on average around Aug 31. We could be on the way to retest the broken trend line now.

Aug 18: GBP USD - MTD 3 High is IN at 1.704

ITD 6 low (1.634) has been broken, which means MTD 3 high position has been confirmed at 1.704.

Both Intermediate Term and Medium Term trend are bearish.

Intermediate Term trend is DOWN until around Aug 24, or possibly 1-2 days later than Aug 24. We should take out 1.627 by then.

Aug 13: GBP JPY - Same alternate scenario as Cable

If today is an ITD turning date, there's also another possible count for Geppy with ITD 1 inversion. It's in similar situation as Cable now.

Aug 13: GBP USD - New scenario

If we use the cable chart I posted on Aug 10, today can not be considered a major ITD turning point. In the Aug 10 chart, we are travelling to ITD 8 low with average turning date of Aug 24. Today Aug 12 would be too early to be considered as ITD 8 low. If we use this Aug 11 chart, we must conclude that the rally today is just a sucker rally and will be brought down again.

However, there's another possibility that ITD 1 inverts. This scenario fits well with the idea that today is an ITD turning point. In this new chart, today can be considered ITD 7 low. Notice in this new chart the difference in ITD count position. In this scenario, we are travelling to ITD 8 high due around Aug 24.

Aug 11: GBP JPY - Long Term Trend is still UP

GBP JPY Trend:

1. Intermediate Term Trend: DOWN

163.1 level last Friday is ITD 7 high. We are travelling down to ITD 8 low due around Friday Aug 21.

2. Medium Term Trend: DOWN / UP

There's a probability that ITD 7 high is also MTD 1 high. If MTD is down, then ITD 9 high later will be lower than ITD 7 high and ITD 10 low will be lower than ITD 8 low. ITD 6 low at 153.9 could be broken too if MTD is down.

Alternatively, MTD direction could also be UP. If this is the case, MTD 1 high will be due at ITD 9 high, and ITD 9 high will be above ITD 7 high.

3. Long Term Trend: UP

The break of 162.6 level is significant because this level is both MTD 12 high and LTD 9 high. This confirms that long term direction is UP and that MTD (12) low and LTD 10 low at 146.75 is the long term base. This also means that 163.1 will be broken again sometimes in the future.

Aug 10 - GBP USD: ITD 7 and MTD 3 high likely have arrived

ITD 7 high has arrived at 1.705. ITD 8 low will be due around Aug 24.

There's also a possibility that MTD 3 high has also arrived at 1.705, but unless there's a break of 1.634, there's no confirmation.

August 5 - GBP JPY: ITD 10 High may have arrived

We have one doji and one spinning top candles in the last two days. Price has also been rejected by trend lines. Daily stochastic is overbought and about to cross over.

Today is also close to ITD 10 high turn point. We have several fundamental news risk in the next few days: BOE interest rate decision on Thursday and NFP on Friday which I think will be worse than expected because ADP today is worse than expected. The event risk in the next 2 days IMO is likely to be bearish for GBP.

There's a possibility that ITD 10 high has arrived today at 162.5. If Geppy doesn't make a new high again, a daily candle close below 160.4 tomorrow / next few days should increase the probability that ITD 10 high has arrived today at 162.5. If ITD 10 high has really arrived, then intermediate term trend is DOWN until around 3rd week of August.