Cable's recovery rally has been rejected by the broken trend line and makes a shooting star in the daily chart.
ITD 9 high may have already arrived last Friday at 1.638. Even though the average arrival of ITD 9 high is on Aug 31, ITD has a standard devation of +/- 3 to 4 trading days. And there's a Delta rule saying that if the higher time frame is travelling down, the lower time frame's low tends to arrive on time or late, and the lower time frame's high tends to arrive early.
Since MTD is currently travelling down, it's quite possible that ITD 9 high has arrived 1 trading days early on Aug 28 last Friday. If this is the case, we are travelling down to ITD 10 low due on average around September 8.
Target price is probably at least SMA 100 days at 1.598. This is a critical price level since 1.598 is also MTD 2 low, which if broken, signals that LTD 17 high has arrived at 1.7.
As an alternate, further rally in the next 1-2 trading days is not completely ruled out. However, in my opinion, rally will be limited as ITD 9 high will soon arrive, if not already arrived last Friday.
14 comments:
Hi C,
Is it the LTD 16 low of 1.5801 or the MTD 2 low of 1.5980 that if broken would signify that LTD 17 is in @ 1.7?
Thanks
Jay
Hi C - is is possible for the ITD 10 low to arrive early on the 5th, or is that unlikely?
Hi Jay,
It's MTD 2 low of 1.598, that if broken, will signal that LTD 17 is in @1.7.
If LTD 16 low of 1.5801 is broken, that will signal that SLTD 3 is in @1.7.
Excellent. Thanks C.
Hi Dugan,
It's possible for ITD 10 low to arrive early on the 4th (5th is on Saturday, and market is closed). ITD has standard deviation of +/- 3 to 4 trading days. Coming at the 4th would mean that it arrives 2 trading days earlier than the average turning date, which is fine.
HI CMELLON,
I just had a question regarding ITD 9 on your cable chart.
I follow EUR/GBP and noticed that on the weekly chart it looks like a possible reversal may be happening around or slightly over the 88 handle given last weeks close.
Given your analysis on GBP/JPY do you think ITD 9 on cable may come in around your original prediction which was just over the 1.64 handle.
I believe the pair will drop back down to 1.6160-80 level before pushing higher to 1.6440-60 which will be ITD 9. What do you think?
P.S. Your technical analysis is the best on the internet. No one even comes close to the detail and accuracy you have. Your charts are very clear and understandable. Please don't stop!
Regards,
Mike
Hi Mike,
Thank you for the compliment. I appreciate it. I agree that EUR/GBP is probably about to reverse. However, this does not automatically mean that GBP will rally.
If USD Index has bottomed out and starts to rally next week, EUR/GBP reversal could mean that GBP slide will not be as bad as Euro slide.
My conservative target price for ITD 9 is actually 1.636 -1.645.
1.636 is the broken trend line and 1.645 is SMA 50 days. Cable's rally has currently met this price target zone, so I'll be cautious of going long.
Although it's possible for pound to still rally more in the next 1-2 trading days, ITD 9 high shows average arrival date on Aug 31 and there's not too much time left for cable to rally higher.
I therefore think the risk favors to the downside at the moment.
Is there a glossary for the acronyms you folks use? I don't know what ITD, MTD, etc. mean. I don't understand your theory or anything else.
Is it possible MTD 4 is in? and we're traveling to MTD 5 +?
Hi spec,
Of course anything is possible in Forex. However,
positioning of ITD (ITD 9 high due around Aug 31, ITD 10 low due around Sep 8) leads me to believe that MTD 4 will be due on ITD 10 low around Sep 8.
Hi C,
I trade using Delta and am interested in MM. Do you trade considering the MC3 points, or do you focus only on MC4/LTD? I am wondering if there is any added benefit to solve for the MC3 points.
Also, just curious if the MM forum contains the M1-M4 solutions for non-S&P 500?
Thanks,
Chris
Hi Chris,
If I understand MM correctly, MC3 is equivalent to LTD (1 year cycle) with 18 points in one cycle. MC4 is also 1 year cycle and has 8 points, and this one does not seem to have the equivalent in Delta. MC5 is equal to SLTD.
I am not sure if MM forum has the M1-M4 solution for non S&P 500. I don't have access to it. However, you could try to solve it yourself. The steps are explained in MM limited edition book.
Hi C,
Thank you. Actually, MC3 and MC4 are both 4 calendar years (1461 days) according to MM book. You are correct that according to MM, MC3 always has 18 points and MC4 always has 8 points. This is all a bit confusing to me, because I have been trading Delta on the assumption that the number of turning points for this time period (LTD) changed according to the particular family--13 points for example for cable. Welles Wilder is undoubtedly a smart person, and so is Steve Copan. But one of them has to be wrong I would think. I am interested in MM because maybe MM really is more correct, but I just don't know yet. Do you trade using LTD as 13 points, or are you having success with 18/8?
Sorry, one last question--I see your cable and geppy charts have the same MC1 turning points, and same MC2 points although MC2 are numbered differently. Is this correct that they are the same? This is also interesting to me, since I have been trading using Yen turning points from Delta, which are different.
Thank you. I like your blog.
Chris
Hi Chris,
I have always used 18 points with LTD (MC3), and currently do not use MC4. So far it's ok.
Cable and geppy actually do not have the same MC1 turning points. The dates are different. They are solved separately, and averages are calculated and inputted into DT software.
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