Wednesday, August 5, 2009

August 5 - GBP JPY: ITD 10 High may have arrived


We have one doji and one spinning top candles in the last two days. Price has also been rejected by trend lines. Daily stochastic is overbought and about to cross over.

Today is also close to ITD 10 high turn point. We have several fundamental news risk in the next few days: BOE interest rate decision on Thursday and NFP on Friday which I think will be worse than expected because ADP today is worse than expected. The event risk in the next 2 days IMO is likely to be bearish for GBP.

There's a possibility that ITD 10 high has arrived today at 162.5. If Geppy doesn't make a new high again, a daily candle close below 160.4 tomorrow / next few days should increase the probability that ITD 10 high has arrived today at 162.5. If ITD 10 high has really arrived, then intermediate term trend is DOWN until around 3rd week of August.
 

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