I've kept hearing more and more analysts in CNBC and reading news that JPY will keep on strengthening, and that JPY will be the new favored currency of choice, and so on. My question is what time frame do they have in mind with this target?
Per my USD JPY chart last time, it's true that ITD 7 low is not yet confirmed IN. I usually wait for a daily candle close above the high of the signal day candle (the candle that makes the new low) to confirm that ITD low is IN. In other words, yesterday was the signal day as the daily candle made a new low at 84.8. The high of that signal day candle is at 87, so a daily candle close above 87 in the coming days would confirm ITD 7 low is IN provided that there's no further new low is made. Per my ITD and MTD chart, we are currently close to both ITD low and MTD low.
Traditional analysis like SSI, RSI, Bollinger Band also show that this pair is currently at the extreme end and due for a rebound. We also see a doji candle on Friday, which warns us of a possible change of direction.
I agree that 80 or below is maybe be possible in the long term. But it's not the time to short right now at this price level. Note that once ITD 7 low is IN, MTD 6 low will also be IN together, and Medium Term trend is going to travel UP until the end of December based on my Delta count. The risk reward therefore IMHO favors for a long position, at least in the medium term.
