Hi everyone,
I still could not confirm the arrival of ITD 11 because there's still no reversal confirmation that I am looking for. I am looking for a daily candle close below the signal day. In our case, the low of signal day now is 1.592, and we still could not get a daily candle close below 1.592.
There are three possibilities at this point:
1. If 1.608 holds, then ITD 11 may have arrived on time at May 27.
2. ITD 11 could arrive late in which case we should see more high in this next couple of days before a more meaningful reversal,
3. ITD 11 has arrived on time at May 27, but then inverted at 1.585, and now going higher to ITD 1 due around June 11. You could see this illustration in my previous post titled 3 possible locations for LTD. The inversion is illustrated at the second chart.
We need several more days to determine which one is more likely.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Delta Introduction
Delta was founded by Jim Sloman and Welles Wilder. Welles Wilder is also famous for developing technical indicators which are among the most commonly used today such as RSI, SAR, and ATR (Average True Range).
Unlike other trading system, Delta places emphasis on time rather than price. The premise is that TIME is more important than price. Delta believes that every market has a cycle and this cycle is influenced by the way our solar system operates. When Delta projects that it's time for market to turn, then market will turn regardless of price. A Delta trader first and foremost concerns about time, and price level is secondary.
Delta is essentially a swing trading system that focuses on time. The idea of Delta is based on a cycle system, where currency makes highs and lows based on a pre-determined cycle. Delta does not try to forecast price level. To forecast price level, we could combine Delta with other methods, such as Fibonacci, trend line, Elliot Wave or other system.
Delta cycle is divided into different time frames: a 4-month cycle, a 1-year cycle, a 4-year cycle, a 19-year cycle, and others. In my post, I often mention the term ITD (Intermediate Term Delta), MTD (Medium Term Delta), LTD (Long Term Delta), and SLTD (Super Long Term Delta). This corresponds to the different time frames cycle.
If you'd like to know more about this system, below is some information:
The official site for Delta is: http://www.deltasociety.com/index.aspx
The official book for Delta is Delta Phenomenon: http://www.deltasociety.com/deltaphenomenon.aspx
Delta training CD: http://www.deltasociety.com/deltatrainingCD.aspx
Another Delta training CD: http://www.deltasociety.com/marketmatrix.aspx
As you can see from the link, these materials are quite expensive to buy. If you are new to FX trading, you may want to try to learn something else first that doesn't require you to pay. The fact of the matter is there is no single holy grail trading strategy which gives you 100% accuracy in your forecast. Stop Loss therefore is a must and proper use of leverage is required. In the end, money management is what determines our success and failure.
So if you are new to FX trading, before you spend money in buying anything, get as much free education as possible. Basic understandings of candlestick, trend line, Fibonacci, and Elliot Wave would be very helpful. In fact, I think trying to learn Delta without basic technical understanding will be quite a challenge, since it takes some effort and time to truly understand and use this system properly. An example of a good free website to learn all of these and more is: http://www.babypips.com/school/
Do check out, read and re-read the money management section of the free website above.
This system, just like any system, will not suit everyone. Some will like it, some will not. Those who like to trade often (daytrader) may not like this system. Many people also hate and think of this system as a scam. For me personally, this system is a welcome addition to my trading arsenal.
For some people, this system's theory about repeatable market cycle influenced by the heavenly bodies is completely rubbish, so be aware of the contra opinions out there. This system is also considered by many to be overly complicated. To me it's pretty straightforward and natural, but it's a different experience to each person.
I created this blog to function like a trading journal, to record how I understand this system and how I implement it to analyze the forex market. I did not create this blog to declare that this is the best system or that this system has no flaw. I like this system because it suits my personality and trading style. It's by no means a perfect system, there'll definitely be times when the analysis is wrong. Even if the system can't be wrong, I am a human, and I sometimes make mistakes in my interpretation of the system. But for every trade idea I posted, I would provide a logical reasoning from my interpretation of the Delta system, and for every mistake I make, I will provide a reason of why and where I get it wrong. This blog is best used by those who either know and use the system, or by those who already have their own reliable system but want to compare and want to know the timing element.
The last thing I want to say is this: Regardless how good our trading system is, an improper use and a lack of money management still ultimately lead to a disaster. We need to manage our money and risk well since there's no such thing as certainty in FX market.
Happy trading.
Cmellon
Unlike other trading system, Delta places emphasis on time rather than price. The premise is that TIME is more important than price. Delta believes that every market has a cycle and this cycle is influenced by the way our solar system operates. When Delta projects that it's time for market to turn, then market will turn regardless of price. A Delta trader first and foremost concerns about time, and price level is secondary.
Delta is essentially a swing trading system that focuses on time. The idea of Delta is based on a cycle system, where currency makes highs and lows based on a pre-determined cycle. Delta does not try to forecast price level. To forecast price level, we could combine Delta with other methods, such as Fibonacci, trend line, Elliot Wave or other system.
Delta cycle is divided into different time frames: a 4-month cycle, a 1-year cycle, a 4-year cycle, a 19-year cycle, and others. In my post, I often mention the term ITD (Intermediate Term Delta), MTD (Medium Term Delta), LTD (Long Term Delta), and SLTD (Super Long Term Delta). This corresponds to the different time frames cycle.
If you'd like to know more about this system, below is some information:
The official site for Delta is: http://www.deltasociety.com/index.aspx
The official book for Delta is Delta Phenomenon: http://www.deltasociety.com/deltaphenomenon.aspx
Delta training CD: http://www.deltasociety.com/deltatrainingCD.aspx
Another Delta training CD: http://www.deltasociety.com/marketmatrix.aspx
As you can see from the link, these materials are quite expensive to buy. If you are new to FX trading, you may want to try to learn something else first that doesn't require you to pay. The fact of the matter is there is no single holy grail trading strategy which gives you 100% accuracy in your forecast. Stop Loss therefore is a must and proper use of leverage is required. In the end, money management is what determines our success and failure.
So if you are new to FX trading, before you spend money in buying anything, get as much free education as possible. Basic understandings of candlestick, trend line, Fibonacci, and Elliot Wave would be very helpful. In fact, I think trying to learn Delta without basic technical understanding will be quite a challenge, since it takes some effort and time to truly understand and use this system properly. An example of a good free website to learn all of these and more is: http://www.babypips.com/school/
Do check out, read and re-read the money management section of the free website above.
This system, just like any system, will not suit everyone. Some will like it, some will not. Those who like to trade often (daytrader) may not like this system. Many people also hate and think of this system as a scam. For me personally, this system is a welcome addition to my trading arsenal.
For some people, this system's theory about repeatable market cycle influenced by the heavenly bodies is completely rubbish, so be aware of the contra opinions out there. This system is also considered by many to be overly complicated. To me it's pretty straightforward and natural, but it's a different experience to each person.
I created this blog to function like a trading journal, to record how I understand this system and how I implement it to analyze the forex market. I did not create this blog to declare that this is the best system or that this system has no flaw. I like this system because it suits my personality and trading style. It's by no means a perfect system, there'll definitely be times when the analysis is wrong. Even if the system can't be wrong, I am a human, and I sometimes make mistakes in my interpretation of the system. But for every trade idea I posted, I would provide a logical reasoning from my interpretation of the Delta system, and for every mistake I make, I will provide a reason of why and where I get it wrong. This blog is best used by those who either know and use the system, or by those who already have their own reliable system but want to compare and want to know the timing element.
The last thing I want to say is this: Regardless how good our trading system is, an improper use and a lack of money management still ultimately lead to a disaster. We need to manage our money and risk well since there's no such thing as certainty in FX market.
Happy trading.
Cmellon
Monday, May 25, 2009
May 25 - Three possible locations for LTD 15
Hello everyone,
GBP has not shown reversal confirmation per the rule I posted two days ago. Without confirmation, this pair could continue going higher.
In the meantime, I identify three possible locations (time wise) for long term top (LTD 15).
1. LTD 15 could be due at ITD 11. If this is the case, then long term top should be due around May 27.
2. LTD 15 could be due at ITD 1. In this case, ITD 11 inverts and long term top should be due around June 11.
3. LTD 15 could be due at ITD 2. If this is the case, long term top should be due around June 22.
There is also another possibility that MTD 12 inverts, and LTD 15 is due at MTD 2, but I consider this one unlikely for now.
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