Price has broken 1.638, which I labelled as ITD 9 high. Unless my ITD count position is incorrect, I must make a conclusion that ITD 10 low and MTD 4 low have arrived at 1.6112.
This means that ITD and MTD direction are currently UP. MTD 5 high is due at the latest around third week of October. LTD 17 high position is not yet confirmed at 1.7.
Perhaps gold breaking above the wedge yesterday changed the rule of the game. Near term, we could see pressure on USD., and I favor a break of USD Index to the downside at the moment.
6 comments:
Hi CMELLON,
OK.... price action in the last 24 hours has been very confusing for me.
Although you have left 1.638 as ITD 9, is it possible that todays swing high at 1.6413 is ITD 9 for no other reason then ITD 9 came late? If this was the case we could see ITD 10 under the 161 handle in the near future, keeping the bearish bias.
If unemployment is worse than expected I can't see how cable can rally until sometime mid to late next week. Thoughts......
-Mike
Hi Mike,
If today's swing high is ITD 9 high, this would mean that ITD 8 low came very late at 1.611.
ITD 8 has an average arrival date of Aug 24. The swing low of 1.611 was at Sep 1. That's 6 trading days late.
IMO, chances are its more likely that the the position of ITD 8 and ITD 9 are as I show on the chart.
Keep in mind that everything is possible in FX though.
Hi Cmellon,
We are missing you over at www.fxroom24.com
Many people are asking for you!!!
Cheers!
Twinkle
Hi Twinkle,
Please send my regards to all the folks there. At the moment, I have enough stuff in my hands to update, such as dailyfx, this blog, other private Delta rooms, and doing my own trading.
I would visit you guys from time to time and perhaps drop some words, but could not regularly provide update there.
HI CMELLON,
I have a question about what price level you are expecting ITD 10 at on your cable ?
I opened up a short GBP/CND position at 1.80 after looking at the 2,4 and 8 hour charts.
Can you say double top on the 2 hour or what!
BUT I am a little concerned with the following criteria. Firstly, the question is how much higher will cable move before reversing?
Secondly, when it does pull back where do you expect ITD 11 around....possibly 1.6440-20 area?
I guess my theory is that Cable will fall more than USD/CND will...Hope to see GBP/CND under the 1.79 handle in the next three days or so.
your thoughts are greatly appreciated... BTW good call on your original ITD count. Like a moron I took my own advice and was thinking a meltdown was going to happen. LMFAO
The dollar index could not have been more transparent. Looks like the U.S is going to continue to try and print there way out of this. SELL SELL SELL!
-Mike
GBP/CND TRADE That I posted above: Just booked 300 pips profit....ship it!
Just set up a long cable trade at 1.6450. US dollar to melt like hot butter. When do you expect ITD 11?
-Mike
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