Dec 31 - Waiting for MTD 7 high arrival confirmation

There's no change with USD JPY forecast from my last post. We are near a turnaround period and waiting for confirmation of MTD 7 high arrival. I draw two trend lines as possible resistance. Yesterday we touched the first TL resistance at 92.75. The second TL resistance is at around 93.2 (this is also upper bollinger band) if it rallies more. In any case, turnaround is near and I personally won't try to chase market by going long at this level. Bearish divergence is also noted at 4 hour and daily chart.

In the zoomed chart, I am looking for a confirmation of a daily candle close below the low of the signal day to confirm MTD 7 high arrival. The low of the current signal day is at 91.89. This confirmation signal is my way to identify a Delta point arrival as explained in my blog Delta Trading: May 19 - How to Trade Delta Point

Dec 31: GBP USD - ITD 9 low / MTD 8 low IN @5830

Quick update with GBP USD from yesterday's post. With bullish engulfing candle yesterday, there's a good possibility that ITD 9 low and MTD 8 low have arrived yesterday at 5830. Buying dips is the preferred strategy from now on.

Dec 30: GBP USD - ITD 9 low and MTD 8 low should be IN soon

ITD 9 low and MTD 8 low will be both IN very soon. We are in the turnaround time period now. We could be a few days late which is perfectly fine by Delta rule, especially if LTD (18) was due at MTD 7 high. This is currently my preferred and main LTD and SLTD count, which shows that both LTD and SLTD are currently travelling down, and thus ITD and MTD are normal to be late for a few days when the higher time frame is travelling down. My chart shows that ITD 9 low average turnaround date is on Monday Dec 28. ITD normally has +/- 1 to 4 trading days standard deviation.

Once MTD 8 low is IN, a look at the two previous MTD cycles show that MTD 8 - MTD 9 could be as long as 50 calendar days and as short as 17 calendar days.

Dec 28: USD JPY - MTD 7 high would be IN anytime

Hello traders. Hope everyone has a nice and relaxing break. Our vacation trip has been very enjoyable and I couldn't wait to get into the market again.

The Medium Term (MTD) outlook for USD JPY looks pretty clear to me, and there's a good opportunity to do some medium term trading and get good profit for the next two months.

To follow up from my previous USD JPY Delta forecast, ITD 8 high and MTD 7 high arrival time are very near and they could be due at anytime now. If you have not been long until now, it's not the best time to go long now as the risk reward is not good.

A look at the two previous MTD cycles give us the forecast for the next two months. We will very soon move to MTD 8 low which should be due around 15 - 22 calendar days from MTD 7 high. In other words, USD JPY is going to weaken until around second - third week of January. From that point on, MTD 8 low will be IN, and we will have a MASSIVE UPMOVE to MTD 9 high. Be sure not to miss this MTD 8 - MTD 9 move.

Hi everyone,

I will be travelling next week, so I won't be able to post new update or respond to questions.
Will be back on the 28th.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all.

Dec 17: USD JPY - Moving along nicely

No change in USD JPY projection. Both ITD and MTD are travelling up nicely per my last post until around end of December.

Dec 17: GBP USD - ITD 8 high looks to be IN

ITD 8 high looks to be IN at 1.641, and we are moving to ITD 9 low (also MTD 8 low) due around end of December.

Dec 10 - GBP USD Delta Update

I have rearranged the ITD count a little bit, but as I previously said, MTD is travelling down until around end of December.

ITD 7 low was due at 1.616, and we are travelling to ITD 8 high for about 3-5 days from ITD 7 low. Target price is around 1.66 (see channel line), then we'll go down one more leg to ITD 9 low due around end of December where MTD 8 low will be due too. ITD 9 low likely will be at the bottom of channel line too.

Dec 7: USD JPY - ITD 7 low and MTD 6 low IN

As I have warned repeated times in my Nov 25, Nov 26, Nov 27 post, USD JPY is very near to ITD 7 low and MTD 6 low, and MTD is travelling UP for the most part in December. ITD 7 and MTD 6 low were due at 85.

A closer look at both ITD chart and MTD chart show that the rally still has legs and most importantly TIME to complete. IMO, USD JPY is good to buy on dips for the month of December.

Dec 7: GBP USD - ITD 7 high likely IN

ITD 7 high was likely IN at 1.672 on Dec 2. As I said in my Nov 28 post "since MTD is travelling down, ITD 7 high will likely arrive earlier. It could be as early as 4 trading days."

ITD 8 low is due on average Dec 21. ONS is expected to report 3rd revision of 3rd Quarter GDP on Dec 22. If they revise up another few percentage, then we may see some rally, good timing for ITD 8 low to be due.

Although ITD position might be slightly unclear, MTD outlook still seems to be the clearest with MTD travelling down until around end of Dec. I still think we could break 1.627 by the end of this month.

Update on my GBP USD Delta chart.

ITD is travelling up to ITD 7 due on average on Dec 8. It may reach as high as the trend line resistance (1.68) per the ITD chart attached.

As I said before, MTD outlook seems to be the clearest IMO and it's travelling down until around end of December. Since MTD is down, ITD 7 may be due earlier than Dec 8. I will try to short cable with stop loss above MTD 7 high at 1.688.

Once this ITD upmove is completed, we shall go down lower than 1.6270

Weekend Thoughts on USD JPY

I've kept hearing more and more analysts in CNBC and reading news that JPY will keep on strengthening, and that JPY will be the new favored currency of choice, and so on. My question is what time frame do they have in mind with this target?

Per my USD JPY chart last time, it's true that ITD 7 low is not yet confirmed IN. I usually wait for a daily candle close above the high of the signal day candle (the candle that makes the new low) to confirm that ITD low is IN. In other words, yesterday was the signal day as the daily candle made a new low at 84.8. The high of that signal day candle is at 87, so a daily candle close above 87 in the coming days would confirm ITD 7 low is IN provided that there's no further new low is made. Per my ITD and MTD chart, we are currently close to both ITD low and MTD low.
Traditional analysis like SSI, RSI, Bollinger Band also show that this pair is currently at the extreme end and due for a rebound. We also see a doji candle on Friday, which warns us of a possible change of direction.

I agree that 80 or below is maybe be possible in the long term. But it's not the time to short right now at this price level. Note that once ITD 7 low is IN, MTD 6 low will also be IN together, and Medium Term trend is going to travel UP until the end of December based on my Delta count. The risk reward therefore IMHO favors for a long position, at least in the medium term.

Nov 27 - Weekend update on GBP USD

Posted is my thoughts on cable in intermediate, medium, and long term.

In the Intermediate Term, ITD timing is recently still pretty stretched out and therefore it's a little difficult to precisely time the Intermediate Term. If my ITD position in my last chart is correct, then ITD 6 low should have been due around Nov 27. Since MTD is pointing down, it's possible for a late coming of ITD 6 low, and thus I expect one more low below 1.646 before ITD 6 low is IN. Again, ITD position is strecthed out and not very clear, therefore confidence is not especially high in the Intermediate Term.

Medium Term outlook is more clear and has higher probability. As can be seen in the MTD chart, the last two MTD cycles show that MTD is travelling down until end of December. Therefore, it's likely that medium term trend is travelling down until the end of December. I expect MTD 8 low to be due around end of December.

Long Term outlook is also not very clear because we are in a possible LTD inversion time zone. If you are someone who are bullish in the long term, then the line in the sand is 1.57 (LTD 18 low) and this means that SLTD 4 low is due there. If this is the scenario, then expect range trading between 1.57 - 1.7 for 2 or more months before 1.7 is broken. If you are someone who are bearish in the long term, then it's possible that LTD (18) is due at MTD 7 high, and that we are travelling down in the long term and ultimately breaks 1.57 without breaking 1.7 high. This will probably correlate to the equity market as well. If you believe that equity has topped out, then you should probably use the LTD (18) at MTD 7 high count, and if you believe that equity will keep rallying for another 10-15%, then you should probably use the SLTD 4 low at LTD 18 low count.

The bottom line is that IMHO the clearest outlook is in medium term, where cable should be in medium term downtrend until end of December.

Nov 26 - USD JPY MTD Chart

Posted is the current MTD chart that I have. ITD 7 low / MTD 6 low should be in soon, and MTD 7 high should be due around end of December.

SLTD is pointing down as 87 is broken.

Nov 26 - USD JPY

USD JPY has broken 87, indicating that SLTD is indeed pointing down per my chart yesterday.

Possible support level is at 86.5 and 85.6 as indicated by the trend channel.

Nov 20 - MTD 7 high likely IN

Based on the latest price action, I place ITD 5 high and MTD 7 high as having arrived, and we could be heading to 1.61 in the medium term.

If the ITD positioning is correct, then ITD 6 low should be due around Nov 27.

Nov 17 - GBP USD Update

It has been a difficult few weeks for me to do a Delta count on Cable. Sometimes that's how life is, and I try not to force a count which I am not really sure of. The best way for me is to observe the market until I feel that I am in sync with the market again.

I don't really want to chase this risk appetite rally. I have been flat in FX for a while, and yesterday I have just sold another good chunk of my stock that I entered in January of this year. Sure equity and high beta currency could keep rallying from here just like many analysts said, but I'll just stand aside and not participate in it.

With that said, attached is my attempt to do a Delta count for cable. If this count is correct, then I expect sterling to keep grinding higher in the next few weeks up to ITD 6, perhaps not in straight line, but a gradual grind. I would attempt to build some short position around Nov 27

Nov 4 - USD YEN update

Here's the count for USD YEN that I have.

For cable, I am still waiting for BOE's meeting on Nov 5th. Rather than trying to make up counts that I am not sure, it's better to wait until it becomes clear, which hopefully will be after Nov 5. When in doubt, DON'T TRADE.

Oct 30 - Still no Update on GBP USD

HI everyone,

I am still having difficulties in coming up with Delta count with a good confidence on the recent cable's move. I will sit aside and let the market plays it out for a couple of weeks. Hopefully it becomes more clear after November 5.

Oct 15: USD JPY - Long Term Bottom likely in

As a follow up to the Sep 29 chart, with three MTD lows in a row, USD JPY looks to have formed a long term bottom for now with a double bottom at 88.

Oct 14 - ITD 1 low is in

ITD 1 was likely IN at 1.57. I am still bearish with this pair overall and target 1.535 (50% fib). Per my count, ITD 2 high is due around Oct 19, and ITD 3 low due around Oct 29. MTD is likely still travelling down, so ITD 2 high should be due earlier and ITD 3 due later. Looking for a new low by the end of this month.

Vacation for next 2 weeks

Hi everyone,

I will have vacation for the next 2 weeks with my family. Will monitor currencies during the trip, but may not post any analysis until I return. Hope to see cable at 1535 when I return on the 14th.

Have a good trading.

Oct 1: GBP USD - Delta Update

Update on chart. As an alternate, more rally is possible until 1.617 - 1.626. NFP may decide the near term direction for this pair.

Sep 29: USD JPY - Long Term Reversal?

Calling for a bottom, especially for a long term bottom, for this beast is a risky business.

But looking at the wave structure of the chart from Delta's perspective, it does have the possibility for this. I'll be watching to see if price can break 92.522 in the coming days. If it breaks this level, it signals to me that long term bottom has likely arrived at 89.5. The break of 92.522 means a higher high ITD which signals that MTD low (MTD 9) has arrived at 89.5, and since there has been 3 MTD lows (MTD 5, MTD 7, MTD 9) in a row, it also signals LTD 3 low has arrived per Delta's rule.

Without a break of 92.522, no confirmation of a long term bottom.

Sept 25: GBP USD - Alternate Count

A fellow trader Mervyn has asked a very good question about my last GBP USD Delta count. He asks what makes me think that ITD 11 has arrived at 1.613. Why couldn't it arrive a little late, and that we are actually moving up to ITD 1 due around Oct 8. I think ITD 11 has arrived at 1.613, but that's just personal preference.

Mervyn is correct and his scenario is absolutely possible though. If we do move up, I expect the move is to test the broken trend line around 1.62. Although the ITD direction has not yet been confirmed, this doesn't change the MTD and LTD count. MTD and LTD are travelling down, regardless whether we are moving up in ITD or not.

My chart shows ITD 11 low on average is due on Sep 22. Usually the standard deviation for ITD is +/- 4 trading days. It's therefore possible that ITD 11 low is due either last Friday or early next week, especially with the rule that if the higher time frame (MTD) is travelling down, then the lower time frame's (ITD) low tends to arrive on time or late.

There are two things that I will pay attention to:

1. If we still make new lows by Oct 1, then that's a little too late for the ITD 11 arrival and chances are ITD 11 position is where I previously posted (at 1.613).

2. If we break lower than 1.58 in the next few days, we could drop really fast and chances are ITD 11 low position is also where I posted at 1.613.

If one of the two above happens next week, IMO ITD is likely travelling down to around Oct 8. Otherwise, the alternate scenario chart could happen.

Lastly, even if ITD 11 arrives late per Mervyn's idea, since we are in inversion time period, it's possible that there's ITD (11) inversion which makes the ITD 1 a low due around Oct 8. So if you decide to go long, do be careful.

Sept 24: GBP USD - LTD 17 has arrived at 1.7

1.611 is broken. Wedge is also broken convincingly.

We have inversion and ITD 1 becomes a low (previously a high) due around Oct 8. I put LTD 17 high as arrived at 1.7. SLTD 3 high will also arrive here as well if 1.58 is broken.

Sept 23: USD YEN Update

Inability to continue bullish move and take out 93.3 means that MTD 9 low and LTD 3 low position is not confirmed at 90.1.

Looking at the chart now, there is a good chance that we see one more leg lower before MTD 9 low and LTD 3 low arrived. The due date for this low is on the first - second week of October.

Sep 21: USD JPY - Possible significant bottom at 90.1

USD JPY could have reached a significant bottom at 90.1, especially if 93.3 is taken out in coming days.

I put ITD 3 high at 93.3, which if broken, signals that MTD 9 low has arrived at 90.1. With already 3 MTD lows in a row (MTD 5 low, MTD 7 low, MTD 9 low), LTD 3 low should have arrived at MTD 9 low as well, making this 90.1 level a pretty significant long term bottom.

Bearish trend line has been broken, Stochastic and MACD all supportive for further upmove.

GBP USD: ITD 11 low should arrive soon

As price seems to go down towards Tuesday Sept 22, I change my ITD count rotation slightly, but the conclusion stays the same.

Medium Term trend is likely still UP, and major level not to be broken is 1.611. Preferred strategy is to buy dips with stops below 1.611. Alternatively, if 1.611 is broken, then I would conclude that LTD 17 has arrived at 1.7 and ITD 10 at 1.674 is also MTD 5 high.

In my count, ITD 11 low is due on average around Tuesday Sep 22. It could be due earlier (today or Monday) as MTD direction is currently UP. Price currently has bounced from a trend line support, and there's also 61.8% fib support. Further weakness should be supported by SMA 100 days at 1.625

ITD 1 high could be MTD 5 high as well, and it's due around October 8. If there's no inversion, then once ITD 11 low is IN, we should move up towards Oct 8.

GBP USD: Alternate Count

One more thing before I go.

I favor a bullish count where medium term low is IN at 1.611. However, if cable reverses around Tuesday Sep 8 and take out 1.611, this is the alternate count that I will be considering.

Travelling next week

I'll be travelling next week and may not have time to update blog.
Dollar Index is on the way to break below the wedge as of this writing, as I favored in my previous post.

If we could close below it firmly, coming to next week, we could expect continued and accelerated selling of USD.

Good luck everyone.

ITD 10 low and MTD 4 low likely IN at 1.6112

Price has broken 1.638, which I labelled as ITD 9 high. Unless my ITD count position is incorrect, I must make a conclusion that ITD 10 low and MTD 4 low have arrived at 1.6112.

This means that ITD and MTD direction are currently UP. MTD 5 high is due at the latest around third week of October. LTD 17 high position is not yet confirmed at 1.7.

Perhaps gold breaking above the wedge yesterday changed the rule of the game. Near term, we could see pressure on USD., and I favor a break of USD Index to the downside at the moment.

Aug 29: GBP USD - ITD 9 High May Have Arrived at 1.638

Cable's recovery rally has been rejected by the broken trend line and makes a shooting star in the daily chart.

ITD 9 high may have already arrived last Friday at 1.638. Even though the average arrival of ITD 9 high is on Aug 31, ITD has a standard devation of +/- 3 to 4 trading days. And there's a Delta rule saying that if the higher time frame is travelling down, the lower time frame's low tends to arrive on time or late, and the lower time frame's high tends to arrive early.

Since MTD is currently travelling down, it's quite possible that ITD 9 high has arrived 1 trading days early on Aug 28 last Friday. If this is the case, we are travelling down to ITD 10 low due on average around September 8.

Target price is probably at least SMA 100 days at 1.598. This is a critical price level since 1.598 is also MTD 2 low, which if broken, signals that LTD 17 high has arrived at 1.7.

As an alternate, further rally in the next 1-2 trading days is not completely ruled out. However, in my opinion, rally will be limited as ITD 9 high will soon arrive, if not already arrived last Friday.

Aug 28: GBP JPY - ITD 8 low is likely IN at 151

ITD 8 low is likely already IN at 151 on Thursday. We could be on the way up to ITD 9 high due around Aug 31.

Projected target price for ITD 9 is probably around 156 (broken trend line).

Aug 27: GBP USD - ITD 8 is likely IN at 1.6159

Target price level and time in the previous post on Aug 18 have been met.

ITD 8 low is probably already IN at 1.6159 on Wednesday.

ITD 9 high will be due on average around Aug 31. We could be on the way to retest the broken trend line now.

Aug 18: GBP USD - MTD 3 High is IN at 1.704

ITD 6 low (1.634) has been broken, which means MTD 3 high position has been confirmed at 1.704.

Both Intermediate Term and Medium Term trend are bearish.

Intermediate Term trend is DOWN until around Aug 24, or possibly 1-2 days later than Aug 24. We should take out 1.627 by then.

Aug 13: GBP JPY - Same alternate scenario as Cable

If today is an ITD turning date, there's also another possible count for Geppy with ITD 1 inversion. It's in similar situation as Cable now.

Aug 13: GBP USD - New scenario

If we use the cable chart I posted on Aug 10, today can not be considered a major ITD turning point. In the Aug 10 chart, we are travelling to ITD 8 low with average turning date of Aug 24. Today Aug 12 would be too early to be considered as ITD 8 low. If we use this Aug 11 chart, we must conclude that the rally today is just a sucker rally and will be brought down again.

However, there's another possibility that ITD 1 inverts. This scenario fits well with the idea that today is an ITD turning point. In this new chart, today can be considered ITD 7 low. Notice in this new chart the difference in ITD count position. In this scenario, we are travelling to ITD 8 high due around Aug 24.

Aug 11: GBP JPY - Long Term Trend is still UP

GBP JPY Trend:

1. Intermediate Term Trend: DOWN

163.1 level last Friday is ITD 7 high. We are travelling down to ITD 8 low due around Friday Aug 21.

2. Medium Term Trend: DOWN / UP

There's a probability that ITD 7 high is also MTD 1 high. If MTD is down, then ITD 9 high later will be lower than ITD 7 high and ITD 10 low will be lower than ITD 8 low. ITD 6 low at 153.9 could be broken too if MTD is down.

Alternatively, MTD direction could also be UP. If this is the case, MTD 1 high will be due at ITD 9 high, and ITD 9 high will be above ITD 7 high.

3. Long Term Trend: UP

The break of 162.6 level is significant because this level is both MTD 12 high and LTD 9 high. This confirms that long term direction is UP and that MTD (12) low and LTD 10 low at 146.75 is the long term base. This also means that 163.1 will be broken again sometimes in the future.

Aug 10 - GBP USD: ITD 7 and MTD 3 high likely have arrived

ITD 7 high has arrived at 1.705. ITD 8 low will be due around Aug 24.

There's also a possibility that MTD 3 high has also arrived at 1.705, but unless there's a break of 1.634, there's no confirmation.

August 5 - GBP JPY: ITD 10 High may have arrived

We have one doji and one spinning top candles in the last two days. Price has also been rejected by trend lines. Daily stochastic is overbought and about to cross over.

Today is also close to ITD 10 high turn point. We have several fundamental news risk in the next few days: BOE interest rate decision on Thursday and NFP on Friday which I think will be worse than expected because ADP today is worse than expected. The event risk in the next 2 days IMO is likely to be bearish for GBP.

There's a possibility that ITD 10 high has arrived today at 162.5. If Geppy doesn't make a new high again, a daily candle close below 160.4 tomorrow / next few days should increase the probability that ITD 10 high has arrived today at 162.5. If ITD 10 high has really arrived, then intermediate term trend is DOWN until around 3rd week of August.

July 30 - GBP USD: ITD 6 low IN?

It's a little bit premature to post these charts, but if we can get a daily candle close above 1.647 today, there's a good chance that ITD 6 low has already IN at 1.634 yesterday. Attached is Delta Chart and Elliot Wave chart (credit EW count to Jamie Saettle from DailyFX).

July 29 - USD YEN: Travelling to ITD 1 High due around Aug 6

This is update to the post at July 23.

Considering the time and current price level, USD YEN most likely has inversion, and ITD 1 high will be due around Aug 6.

July 24 - GBP USD : ITD 5 High is In

ITD 5 high is likely IN at 1.6585 as today's candle has closed (London closing time) below the low of signal day (below 1.643).

MTD rotation is still unclear since it's still not totally out of inversion time period. ITD rotation slowly gets more clear and out of inversion time period.

Intermediate Term direction is DOWN to ITD 6 low due on average July 30.

July 24 - GBP YEN : Medium Term Direction

There's a bullish count for GBP YEN which will get more favorable if time continues to pass by and Geppy doesn't start to reverse seriously. If USD YEN bullish count I posted yesterday happens to be the correct one, then GBP YEN bullish count could likely also be happening.

Under this bullish count, MTD 7 low, and most likely also LTD 10 low have been due at 146.75, so medium term direction and long term direction are travelling up.

In ITD time frame, under this scenario, ITD 9 low will end above 146.75.

For the bearish case I posted in July 13 to be happening, Geppy needs to start reversing hard asap.