Jan 30 - Delta Update for GBP/USD and USD/JPY is ready

I have updated the Delta Position page for GBP/USD and USD/JPY, available at the navigation menu above.

For GBP/USD, we are now in both ITD and LTD Inversion Time Period, that's why price has not been trending well, and it's been contained in a range for a number of months now. However, it looks like we may get some solution about the direction soon, perhaps as soon as next month.

For USD/JPY, I am leaning towards a rally from here. How fast and how strong, or whether I am right or wrong remains to be seen, but I am in the bullish side for the moment.

This year I try to become more of a medium term positional swing trader (holding for weeks/.months) and looking for higher probability and higher reward setup. My focus in the first quarter of 2010 has been GBP/NZD and USD/JPY as I posted in the trade idea. As I am now already in the position for both, I would just monitor it until my time target is near and I may not post too much updates in the blog. GBP/NZD has rallied over 1000 pips since I posted the trade idea last time, and I am still holding it now while moving my stop loss. I have taken position in USD/JPY, and now will just wait and see what the market wants to do.

Jan 29 - No Confirmation of ITD 1 / MTD 8 low arrival yet

I still can't get today's candle to close above the high of the signal day (90.079). This doesn't mean that ITD 1 / MTD 8 low has not arrived at 89.127. It could have arrived, but there's no confirmation that I am looking for yet.

Since no new low is made today, signal day remains the same at Jan 27.

Tomorrow we will have US Q4 GDP announcement which could potentially be better than forecast, and may support USD JPY. The consensus is for 4.2%, but some major banks have raised their estimates recently. Here are some articles
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/q4-gdp-beware-blip.html
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/JPMorgan+Raises+Q4+US+GDP+Growth+Forecast+from+4.5%25+to+5.7%25/5251369.html

Keep an eye on the event.

Jan 28 - USD/JPY: ITD 1 low / MTD 8 low maybe IN

Unless there's a very quick drop again today, from time perspective we are due for a turn already and could not delay too much longer, so there's a possibility that ITD 1 low / MTD 8 low has already arrived at 89.127 yesterday. If so, we could be at the early stage of a strong rally into the 100s which last 1 - 1.5 months if my analysis is correct. A daily candle close above the signal day today would further support the conclusion.

P.S. I may not post Delta chart update in the main page of the blog everytime, but I will attempt to update Delta position for GBP/USD and USD/JPY every Saturday. You could find the charts at Delta Position page from the navigation menu above for the most uptodate position.

Jan 28 - USD/JPY New Signal Day

Continuing the post from yesterday: It's 12 AM Jan 28 in the morning at where I am. My candle for Jan 27 has just closed a few minutes ago and the Jan 27 candle made a new low today, so it's a new signal day.  Below is the updated chart:

The new signal day has a low of 89.217 and a high of 89.714. Assuming if there's no new low made, then a daily candle close above 89.714 in coming days is a signal that ITD 1 / MTD 8 low has arrived.

Jan 27: Preparing for a USD/JPY Turn

Original trade idea is available at:
http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/jan-13-usd-jpy-trading-plan.html

Here's one way to tell whether Delta low turning point has arrived or not. The theory is available at Introduction - Trading Delta Point from the navigation menu above.

As we are close to a Delta low turning point, any day that makes a new low becomes a signal day. I use a London broker and my candle has closed for Jan 26, 2010. We are making a new low near Delta turning date, so Jan 26 is the signal day. See chart below

As you can see above, the signal day is Jan 26 with a low of 89.37 and a high of 90.545. The idea is that as long as there's no new low made in coming days, then we can conclude Delta low has arrived when we can have a daily candle close above the high of the signal day (above 90.545) in coming days.

EDIT: As I write this, we have just broken 89.37. Some of you who use U.S. broker is still in Jan 26, but my candle is now already in Jan 27 at 12:30 AM (local time), so Jan 27 will be my new signal day, and I have to wait until Jan 28 12:00 AM to get the high and the low of the new signal day (Jan 27) and use the same idea above.

Jan 26 - USD JPY still in bottoming process

Original trade idea is available at:
http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/jan-13-usd-jpy-trading-plan.html

USD JPY is currently still in a range with no confirmation of ITD 1 low / MTD 8 low arrival yet.
Per my calculation, ITD 1 low is due on average this Thursday January 28. This date also happens to be 50% TIME retracement from the low of 85 (Nov 26, 2009) and the high of 93.6 (Jan 7, 2010). Something to watch out for.

Jan 22: USD JPY Situation

Original trade idea is available at:
http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/jan-13-usd-jpy-trading-plan.html

The move from MTD 7 (93.7) to the low of 89.78 today is in 15 days. In the last cycle, the MTD 7 to 8 move was also in 15 days. From Delta perspective, turning point can happen at any time now, including today. Although I said that I am targetting between 50 - 61.8 fib as  the most likely price reversal point, the target may not be reached and turning point may happen at any time now.

Below is the Ichimoku chart

Chikou span gets a support at the cloud (at 89.78), and it's also the low of the parallel trend line channel. Technically speaking, this could be the point of reversal too, although again not yet confirmed, and Delta still allows for a few more days for MTD 8 low to arrive.

Below is USD JPY Delta MTD chart:

As I said in the beginning of this post, the move from MTD 7 (93.7) to the low 89.78 today is in 15 days. In the last cycle, the move from MTD 7 - MTD 8 was also in 15 days. Again, although there's no confirmation yet for MTD 8 low, it could be IN today from Delta's perspective. If we consider that MC3, MC4, and MC5 are all IN at 85, there's also a good chance MTD 8 low would arrive earlier.

Keep monitoring and be on the lookout for this pair.

Jan 21 - USD JPY Approaching MTD 8 Time Zone

Original trade idea is available at:
http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/jan-13-usd-jpy-trading-plan.html

Attached is a mid term update of price action.

The boxed area is probable Jan 25 - Jan 29 ITD 1 / MTD 8 time reversal zone using Delta and probable price reversal zone using Ichimoku & EW. This chart is a combination of Elliot Wave, Ichimoku, and Delta.

Keep your eyes open and be alert.

Jan 21 - GBP USD in Inversion Time Period

Cable is still in ITP, and the possibility of inversion makes the ITD count subject to change.
Following chart is what I am currently thinking.

There's a possibility that we have reached ITD (11) at 1.6457, and if so we are moving down to ITD 1 low due on average Feb 3. However, ITD 1 may invert as well which means that Feb 3 could be an ITD (1) high instead

Assuming ITD (11) has arrived at 1.6457, it's still not yet clear whether MTD 9 has arrived with it. If MTD 9 high completes below 1.688, then this means that LTD (and most likely SLTD as well) is travelling down and that LTD 18 inverts at 1.688.

New Look and Navigation Menu

In order to make the most relevant and uptodate information easier to access, I have added a drop down navigation bar at the top of the blog with the following format:

Home - Go back to main page

Intro
  What is Delta - A little info about Delta for beginners
  Trading Delta - Explaining one strategy to trade near Delta point

Delta Position: Most uptodate Delta Count for USD JPY and GBP USD in multiple time frames
Trade Idea: Trades that I am currently working on

With this new feature, hopefully you can find all that you need easier. Enjoy.

Jan 13 - USD JPY Trade Idea

Recent update of this trade idea:
1. Jan 21 update: http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/jan-21-usd-jpy-approaching-mtd-8-time.html
2. Jan 22 update: http://cmellon-deltatrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/jan-22-usd-jpy-situation.html

I am of the opinion that USD JPY is soon going to rally fast and furious (and so do other JPY crosses for that matter). If my analysis is correct, there's an attractive opportunity to go long USD JPY soon for a medium term play (around 1 month holding period). You'll find more and more FX commentators coming up with fundamental reason of why YEN is weakening next month, but as usual, they'll do it after the fact has happened ;-)

We'll start off with the SLTD (MC4) chart below


As you can see above, SLTD 8 (MC4-8) has always been due near green line. There's a good chance that SLTD 8 low has been due at 85. The reason is that if I measure the length of time from SLTD 1 to SLTD 8 in the current cycle, it's already 208 weeks or 1456 days. A full SLTD cycle from SLTD 1 to another SLTD 1 is on average 1461 days. In the current cycle, we have almost reached the average 1461 days even though we are just in SLTD 8, so it's already very late and it's highly likely that SLTD 8 is IN at 85.

In addition, we could see three SLTD in a row (SLTD 4, SLTD 6, and SLTD 8), which tells us that the higher time frame (the MC5 - 19 year metonic cycle) has also been due at 85.

Next we go to the smaller time frame and look at MTD chart.

MTD 7 has always been due near yellow line. I currently put MTD 7 high IN at 93.76. We could see that MTD 7 (93.76) is higher than MTD 5 (92.3) telling us that LTD (MC3 low) was IN at 85.

Looking at previous two cycles, the length of time from MTD 7 to MTD 8 is 22 days and 15 days. We could expect the same approximate length of time in the current cycle too, which means that in the current cycle, MTD 8 low's arrival time zone is around Jan 25 - Jan 29. It could possibly be earlier as many of the higher TF (MC3, MC4, MC5) are all travelling UP.

I am targetting a probable 61.8 fib as MTD 8 low due around Jan 25 - 29, which makes a head and shoulder formation. But there's a possibility for 50 fib support too near the kumo cloud (see ichimoku chart).

From the past two cycles, the length of time from MTD 8 to MTD 9 is 32 days and 43 days (around 1 - 1.5 month). In the current cycle, we may also travel up that long once MTD 8 low is IN. Also notice in the past two cycles how strong the move was from MTD 8 to MTD 9. It looks like EW wave 3 type of move. We could also expect such a strong move too in the current cycle once MTD 8 low is IN. This is supported by the fact that MC3, MC4, and MC5 are all IN. When multiple higher time frame are due at the same time like this, movement tends to be really strong

Next we go down into smaller TF ITD.

As I wrote in my previous post, a break of 91.23 (ITD 11 low) signals that MTD 7 high has arrived at 93.76. We are therefore travelling down to ITD 1 low which has always been due near red line (that's also around end of Jan). This coincides well with the timing for MTD 8 low.

Again I am targetting 61.8 fib for a possible head and shoulder formation, but 50 fib could be a strong support point as well due to the cloud top (see ichimoku chart). Or the market could retest close to 85 to convince and trap the bears as well as testing bulls' resolve and psyche.

Next we'll go to Ichimoku chart

Above is Ichimoku chart that I use to target possible price for MTD 8 low. Delta shows direction and time, but not price. For price target, we could use EW, Ichimoku, trend line or any other thing that you like, but for this time, I decide to use Ichimoku since this is Yen pair and Japanese traders love to trade with Ichimoku. For an example of using Elliot Wave to project price target near Delta turning point, you can look at my GBP NZD analysis.

You could see that Tenkan Sen has crossed above Kijun Sen above kumo cloud, which in Ichimoku world is considered a strong bullish signal. Since Delta says MTD is travelling down to around Jan 25 -29, I circle possible price support near this time period. You could see a kumo cloud top in that period, which also coincides with 50 fib retracement from 85 - 93.76. That's definitely a good level to start buying, and keep adding if it drops more.

So to summarize the plan is to buy at MTD 8 low around Jan 25 -29 (possibly earlier) with probable reversal price zone near kumo cloud (50 fib) or 61.8 fib (H&S). Price should not break lower than 85 since MC3, MC4, and MC5 are all due, so this could be the stop loss. And hold the position until MTD 9 high which is around 1 - 1.5 months. And based on previous two MTD cycles, this MTD 8 to MTD 9 move could be really strong.

Good luck.

Jan 11 - GBP USD Long Term View

Above chart is GBP USD SLTD chart with the last 3 cycles.
SLTD 4 has always been due near green line. The question is whether in the current cycle, SLTD 4 has been due at the question mark place (1.57 on Oct 13, 2009).

If current cycle repeats the previous two cycles (sometimes it does not), then GBP USD is in a very long UP cycle (until SLTD 7).

The length of time from SLTD 1 in Jan 2002 to SLTD 4 in Feb 2002 is 56 weeks.
The length of time from SLTD 1 in Dec 2004 to SLTD 4 in Dec 2005 is 50 weeks.

In the current cycle, if I assume 1.57 on Oct 13, 2009 is the current cycle's SLTD 4, then the length of time from SLTD 1 in Jul 2008 to SLTD 4 in Oct 2009 is 65 weeks. This is longer than the previous two cycles, and thus there's a chance that SLTD 4 was already IN.

Assuming SLTD 4 is still not IN, the length of time from SLTD 1 in Jul 2008 to the current week is already 78 weeks. If SLTD 4 is still not IN, then this cycle's pattern and structure would likely not repeat the past two cycles and we need to do some other analysis.

Now take a look at the length of time from SLTD 4 to SLTD 5 in the past two cycles. It was 52 weeks and 60 weeks. That's 1 year up cycle. 1 year from SLTD 4 in Oct 2009 is Oct 2010.

Jan 10 - More food for thought on USD JPY

Above is USD JPY ITD chart. If 93.76 is really the MTD 7 high, then the above chart is my preferred ITD count. However, only a break below ITD 11 (below 91.24) will confirm that MTD 7 high has arrived. Otherwise, technically speaking, we could still head up to ITD 1 due around red line (around end of January). If we keep rallying, then ITD 1 high around end of Jan must be MTD 7 high because Delta's rule has a maximum of 3 ITDs within MTD (or 4 ITDs if one of the ITD is an inversion).

Interestingly though, in my Jan 8 post, I mentioned that MTD 8 low arrival time zone is likely around 15-20 days from MTD 7 high. I also mentioned in the previous post that MTD 8 low's arrival time zone is around Jan 25 - 29, assuming that MTD 7 high is at 93.76. If ITD 11 inverts at 93.76, then this MTD 8's arrival time zone matches well with the ITD 1's arrival time zone.

For bullish scenario until around end of January, I have come up with this EW chart:

If this EW count is right, then we could have one more rally to wave 5. However, the requirement for this EW count to be valid is it doesn't break below 91.24. If it breaks below it, then the Delta's logic says that MTD 7 high arrival is confirmed, and therefore this EW count is likely wrong.

Overall, I am leaning towards ITD (11) inversion instead of rallying to ITD 1 high around end of January. But a break below 91.24 is required to confirm it.

Jan 10 - GBP NZD Trade Idea

Perhaps many of you don't trade this pair, but I have been keeping my eye on GBP NZD lately since it seems to be nearing a Super Long Term Delta low time zone.

First off, we start with SLTD chart. The chart above is SLTD (MC4) chart with the last 3 full cycles. A full cycle of SLTD is a 4 year cycle in length or 1461 days. It never inverts and it has 8 turning points. Because it never inverts, once we know SLTD 1 is a high, it will always be a high. It's pretty simple.

We could see in the chart that SLTD 8 has always been due around green line. The question is whether SLTD 8 low has been due at 2.13 or not. Regardless whether it's been due or not, we could nonetheless see that we are near the time zone of SLTD 8 low. Bear in mind that SLTD is a very high time frame and therefore could have a big standard deviation, sometimes as long as several months.

Let's move on to second chart.

In the second chart above, I am doing a time count and fibonacci time count for the last three SLTD cycles. We could observe the following from the chart above:

1998 - 2002 Cycle
From SLTD 1 in Sep 25, 1998 to another SLTD 1 in Aug 9, 2002 (this is one full SLTD cycle), the length of time is 201 weeks or 1407 days. Remember as I said above that 1 full SLTD cycle is 4 year in length or 1461 days, so 1407 days is pretty close to the average.

From SLTD 1 in Sep 25, 1998 to SLTD 8 in June 14, 2002, the length of time is 192 weeks or 1344 days.

2002 - 2006 Cycle
From SLTD 1 in Aug 9, 2002 to another SLTD 1 in Aug 4, 2006, the length of time is 208 weeks or 1456 days (this is almost exactly 1461 days average).

From SLTD 1 in Aug 9, 2002 to SLTD 8 in Dec 9, 2005, the length of time is 174 weeks or 1218 days.

We could also see the length of time from SLTD 7 in April 22, 2005 - SLTD 8 in Dec 9, 2005 is 35 weeks and the length of time from SLTD 8 in Dec 9, 2005 - SLTD 1 in Aug 4, 2006 is 34 weeks.

2006 - 2010 Cycle (Current Cycle)
By doing fibonacci time count in Dynamic Trader, I believe I might have found an important time link for the next SLTD 1 high. The length of time from SLTD 1 high in Sep 25, 1998 to SLTD 8 low in Dec 9, 2005 is 377 weeks (377 is a fibonacci number).

This tells us that both of these turning points are perhaps important turning points. Extending the fibonacci time count, 677 weeks from SLTD 1 high in Sep 25, 1998 is June 4, 2010 (677 is also a fibonacci number). If I do a fibonacci time count from SLTD 8 low in Dec 9, 2005, 233 weeks from Dec 9, 2005 is May 28, 2010 (233 is a fibo number). By doing this exercise, we find there's a fibonacci time cluster around end of May / early June.

What's interesting about this May 28, 2010 and June 4, 2010 date is this: If you measure the length of time from SLTD 1 in Aug 4, 2006 to the week of May 28 / June 4, 2010, you will get 199 weeks or 1393 days. This is close enough to the average 1460 days (208 weeks) for a full SLTD cycle. In other words, SLTD 1 high might arrive around end of May / early June, 2010.

If we assume that 2.13 at Oct 9, 2009 is SLTD 8 low, then the length of time from SLTD 1 in Aug 4, 2006 to SLTD 8 low in Oct 9, 2009 is 167 weeks or 1169 days. Also assuming that end of May / early June 2010 is the SLTD 1 high arrival, then we have 20 weeks to go towards SLTD 1 high.

The fibonacci time count in SLTD chart probably still doesn't tell us with high probability that SLTD 8 low has arrived at 2.13. But at least we can see that we are near SLTD 8 low time zone with only 20 weeks left before SLTD 1 high is due.

In the next MTD chart, we could see a compelling reason for bullish case:

If the proposed MTD count is correct, we could see MTD 6 has always been due near yellow line.
MTD 4 (2.13) is maybe an LTD low as well although it's not guaranteed because Delta allows for 4 maximum MTDs in this case since one of the MTD point is an inversion. But if MTD 6 low is above MTD 4, then LTD low is likely IN at 2.13, as well as SLTD 8 low.

I also do a time count between MTD 1 to MTD 6 in all three cycles. The length of time between MTD 1 - MTD 6 in the previous two cycles is 127 and 145 days, and in the current cycle it's 170 days. In other words, the length of time between MTD 1 to MTD 6 in the current cycle is already longer than the previous two cycles, which makes it likely that MTD 6 to be due soon.

Next, we'll use Elliot Wave count to project possible price level reversal.

As you can see above, we have 5 waves up and 3 waves down. Wave C is currently about equal to wave A, and we are nearing the price level reversal zone.

Jan 8 - MTD 7 High Arrived?

Dollar get sold off across the board as a result of worse than expected NFP, making it likely for the Fed to keep rates at prolonged period.

With 5 waves from 85 visible, bearish divergence between stoch and price, and rejection of SMA 200 days (9350), MTD 7 high just might really arrive this time. IF MTD 7 high really arrives, counting 15-20 calendar days from Jan 8 brings us to the week of Jan 25 - Jan 29 as potentially the time for MTD 8 low.

Jan 7: USD JPY - MTD 7 not yet arrived

The break above 93.2 nullifies my USD JPY Jan 4 post. My view now is that MTD 7 high comes a bit late. We are testing SMA 200, and we'll see if we could break above it. Elliot Wavers anticipate this last high (MTD 7 high) as wave 5 from the low of 85. So we should be in a three waves down (MTD 8 low) after the 5 waves complete.

I am still looking for a decent drop to MTD 8 low for 15-20 days after MTD 7 high has arrived before the rally to MTD 9 high for 1 - 1.5 months.

GBP NZD - Potential Long Opportunity

I was looking at GBP NZD and there could be a really good long opportunity for this pair. I have attached two charts: Delta and Elliot Wave.

In the Delta MTD chart, I am not labelling the count, but you can see that medium term Delta point has always been due near the yellow vertical line. We are now just right there at the yellow vertical line, telling us a Medium Term Delta (in the current situation it's Medium Term Delta low) has arrived / is going to arrive very soon.

In the EW chart, we can see a five waves up, and three waves down. It's yet to be seen whether wave C has completed, but combining this with Delta tells us wave C should soon / already complete.

Jan 4: USD JPY - MTD 7 may have arrived @93.2

Happy New Year everyone,

Wishing you all another good and profitable year in trading. Now back to Delta stuff =)

Referring to my Dec 31 USD JPY Delta post, we have touched the second TL that I indicated as possible resistance at 93.2, and we get a sound rejection.

The signal day (the day that makes a new high near Delta turning point) is today with a low of 92.18 and a high of 93.2. To get better confirmation of MTD 7 arrival, a daily candle close below the low of signal day (below 92.18) in the next few days is safer. However, with the sound rejection today, it's quite probable that MTD 7 high has arrived.

As I indicated in my Dec 28 post, once MTD 7 high arrives, we will be in a medium term downcycle for about 15-22 calendar days, and from that point MTD 8 low will be IN, and we will have a MASSIVE UPMOVE with LITTLE RETRACEMENT to MTD 9 high for about 30-40 calendar days.

GBP USD Delta Position

Note:
Please ignore the system date of this post since I will update this page regularly
I will attempt to update this page every Saturday
Following charts are updated as of Saturday Feb 6, 2010

OVERVIEW
The break of 1.5894 last week is the first indication that MTD 9 high has arrived at 1.6457. It also indicates that the higher time frame LTD and SLTD are probably both travelling down. Sure enough the subsequent break of 1.57 on Friday confirms that both LTD and SLTD are indeed travelling down.

From the MTD, LTD, and SLTD time frame point of view, the downward price pressure likely has not finished. From ITD time frame point of view, we are due for some relief correction.

ITD (MC1)

ITD 1 low most likely has either been due last Friday or Monday of next week. Once ITD 1 low is IN, we are travelling UP to ITD 2 high due on average Monday Feb 15. There is a possibility of  ITD 1 inversion, but I am leaning towards no inversion since ITD 2 is due soon anyway. Looking forward, ITD 3 low is due on average Feb 24 and this is most likely where MTD 10 (and possibly also LTD 1) will also arrive.

MTD (MC2)

MTD 9 high has been confirmed to arrive at 1.6457 when we had a break of 1.5894 last week. We are currently travelling down to MTD 10 low. Looking at the past two MTD cycles, MTD 9 - MTD 10 move was in 34 and 30 calendar days. In the current cycle, the length of time from MTD 9 high (1.6457) to last Friday's low (1.5557) was only 18 calendar days, and therefore it's likely that MTD 10 low is not yet due.
MTD 10 low is probably going to be due together with ITD 3 low on average Feb 24.

LTD (MC3)

The break of 1.5894 last week proves that LTD (18) inversion has arrived at 1.687. We are currently travelling DOWN to LTD 1 low. Delta rule says that if LTD (MC3) inverts, it must double invert as well. To allow for an adequate time for both LTD 1 and LTD (1), it's probable that LTD 1 low will be due quite soon, perhaps together with MTD 10 low.

USD JPY Delta Position

Note:
Please ignore the system date of this post since I will update this page regularly
I will attempt to update this page every Saturday
Following charts are updated as of Jan 30, 2010

ITD (MC1)

We have likely reached ITD 1 low at 87.125 on Jan 26, and MTD 8 low likely arrived with it as well. We can still have inversion, but I am leaning towards no inversion and a rally from here.

MTD (MC2)

MTD 8 low has likely arrived at 87.125 on Jan 26 together with ITD 1 low. Although Delta rule allows MTD 8 low to be due a lot later, I am putting it here because of several considerations.

1) If I assume 87.125 is MTD 8 low, then the length of time from MTD 7 to MTD 8 in the current cycle is 19 days. In the past two cycles, the length of time from MTD 7 to MTD 8 low is 22 days and 15 days.

2) The EW structure and Ichimoku seems to support the idea of a bounce from around this price zone

3) Daily stochastic is oversold. Monthly stochastic is oversold and trying to correct up. Some bullish divergence in monthly chart is also noted.

If MTD 8 low has really arrived at 87.125, then the past two cycles give approximate guidance on what to expect for MTD 9 high.

1) In the past two cycles, the length of time from MTD 8 - MTD 9 is 32 days and 43 days, respectively. We could expect similar thing in the current cycle.

2) In the past two cycles, MTD 8 to MTD 9 price move is 1.236 and 1.618 x MTD 7 to MTD 8 price move., respectively. If I project the same 1.236 and 1.618 x MTD 7 to MTD 8 price move in the current cycle, then MTD 9 price zone is between 100 and 103. However, I will focus more on time rather than price target. So when we get closer to March (30-40 days move is my time target), then I'll be reassessing this price target again.